Peter Strzelecki

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	54	0	58	4.47	3.00	25.6%	7.6%	1.1	K 23.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.15
2025	30	AAATB	18	1	22	9.41	5.60	16.4%	11.8%	—	K 14.1% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.85
2026	31	MIX3 levels	41	1	50	4.89	3.93	24.2%	6.2%	0.4	K 21.2% · BB 5.9% · FIP 4.37
2027PROJ	32	MLBSTL	50	0	52	4.42	4.61	18.7%	7.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBSTL	17	0	18	4.68	4.86	18.3%	8.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBSTL	13	0	14	4.93	5.13	17.8%	8.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs68

FB Velo22

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsScott Atchison (age 31) · Arcenio Leon (age 32) · Hector Navarro (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.42

FIP4.61

K%18.7%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p1017.0%

p1013.1%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+1.1 (49%)

SL+0.5 (18%)

CH (20%)

SI (7%)

CT-0.7 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	23	0	29	128	41	11	2	0%	1.3	21.8%	10.7%	11.0%	2.2%	5.52	3.82	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	23	0	29	128	41	11	2	0%	1.3	32.0%	8.6%	23.4%	1.6%	5.52	2.32	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	241	66	14	4	0%	1.5	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	2.1%	3.05	3.39	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	241	66	14	4	0%	1.5	27.4%	5.8%	21.6%	1.7%	3.05	2.46	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	52	219	71	16	6	0%	1.3	26.5%	8.3%	18.2%	3.2%	3.46	3.70	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	52	219	71	16	6	0%	1.3	32.4%	7.3%	25.1%	2.7%	3.46	2.79	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	67	268	90	23	6	0%	1.2	31.3%	8.8%	22.6%	2.4%	2.83	2.91	+1.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	67	268	90	23	6	0%	1.2	33.6%	8.6%	25.0%	2.2%	2.83	2.60	+1.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	57	264	64	30	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	1.2%	5.68	3.18	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	57	264	64	30	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.4%	12.9%	1.1%	5.68	3.12	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	250	64	19	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.1%	16.2%	2.0%	4.47	3.15	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	250	64	19	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.1%	16.2%	2.0%	4.47	3.15	+1.0
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	58	250	64	19	5	0%	1.1	25.6%	7.6%	18.0%	2.0%	4.47	3.00	+1.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	22	110	18	13	4	6%	1.2	14.1%	10.6%	3.4%	2.9%	9.41	4.85	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	22	110	18	13	4	6%	1.2	14.1%	10.6%	3.4%	2.9%	9.41	4.85	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	18	1	22	110	18	13	4	6%	1.2	16.4%	11.8%	4.5%	3.6%	9.41	5.60	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	50	211	51	13	8	2%	1.2	21.2%	5.9%	15.3%	4.2%	4.89	4.37	+0.1
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	50	211	51	13	8	2%	1.2	21.2%	5.9%	15.3%	4.2%	4.89	4.37	+0.1
2026	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	50	211	51	13	8	2%	1.2	24.2%	6.2%	18.0%	3.8%	4.89	3.93	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	0	98	419	94	33	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.9%	14.6%	1.7%	3.78	3.12	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	STL	50	0	52	220	41	17	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	7.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.42	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	STL	46	0	48	204	37	17	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.86	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	STL	42	0	44	185	33	16	7	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	3.7%	4.93	5.13	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	STL	17	0	18	76	14	6	3	0%	1.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.86	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	STL	13	0	14	59	11	5	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	3.7%	4.93	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	0	130	554	118	44	12	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.0%	13.4%	2.1%	4.03	3.48	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	855	182	68	19	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.0%	13.4%	2.1%	4.03	3.48	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		329	2	394	1691	398	142	42	1%	1.2	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.5%	4.43	3.54	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	1	200	858	202	72	21	1%	1.2	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.5%	4.43	3.54	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peter Strzelecki (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	18.7%	7.6%	3.2%	—	4.99	18.1%	9.6%	92	+0.38	—	—	—
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	84
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	82
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	79
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	79
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	77
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	76
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	75
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	75
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	75
Esteban Haro R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	13.9%	5.1%	2.4%	.386	3.76	9.5%	3.9%	39	-0.15	3.76	164	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Pedro Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	31	SU	4.14	14.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	145	74
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	48	20.0%	8.3%	1.06	4.31
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Joe Borowski ('08)	2.3	57	18.9%	9.0%	1.05	4.18
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*