Lachlan Wells

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2017	20	MIX2 levels	17	15	85	3.90	3.71	21.0%	5.4%	—	K 15.4% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.98
2019	22	MIX2 levels	10	9	49	4.22	2.51	18.7%	5.7%	—	K 12.5% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.26
2024	27	MIX2 levels	17	17	93	3.47	4.02	21.2%	3.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 3.3% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	10	10	62	4.24	4.24	20.1%	5.9%	0.5
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBPHI	3	3	18	4.37	4.45	20.1%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	32	MLBPHI	4	4	27	4.54	4.67	19.9%	7.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBrandon Mann (age 32) · John Bale (age 29) · Tsuyoshi Wada (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%20.1%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	10	9	47	185	49	11	4	90%	4.7	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	3.0%	2.09	4.18	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	10	9	47	185	49	11	4	90%	4.7	26.5%	5.9%	20.5%	2.2%	2.09	2.83	—
2016	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	12	71	282	63	16	4	100%	5.9	16.5%	6.7%	9.8%	1.5%	1.77	3.37	—
2016	19	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	12	71	282	63	16	4	100%	5.9	22.3%	5.7%	16.7%	1.4%	1.77	2.74	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	85	353	74	19	11	88%	5.0	15.4%	6.4%	9.0%	4.3%	3.90	4.98	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	85	353	74	19	11	88%	5.0	21.0%	5.4%	15.6%	3.1%	3.90	3.71	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	49	209	39	12	1	90%	4.9	12.5%	7.5%	5.0%	0.5%	4.22	3.26	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	49	209	39	12	1	90%	4.9	18.7%	5.7%	12.9%	0.5%	4.22	2.51	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	93	373	79	12	16	100%	5.5	17.1%	3.3%	13.8%	4.6%	3.47	4.62	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	93	373	79	12	16	100%	5.5	17.1%	3.3%	13.8%	4.6%	3.47	4.62	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	93	373	79	12	16	100%	5.5	21.2%	3.2%	18.0%	4.3%	3.47	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	10	10	62	262	53	15	8	100%	6.2	20.1%	5.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.24	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	58	244	49	16	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.37	4.45	+0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	54	226	45	16	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	3.6%	4.54	4.67	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	18	76	15	5	3	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.37	4.45	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	27	114	23	8	4	100%	6.8	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	3.6%	4.54	4.67	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	46	192	38	13	7	100%	5.7	19.9%	7.0%	13.0%	3.5%	4.47	4.20	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	57	31	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.0%	13.0%	3.5%	4.47	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		66	62	346	1402	224	83	43	94%	5.2	16.0%	5.9%	10.1%	3.1%	3.14	4.20	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	810	130	48	25	94%	5.2	16.0%	5.9%	10.1%	3.1%	3.14	4.20	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lachlan Wells (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	20.1%	5.9%	3.1%	—	4.56	20.0%	13.1%	111	+0.32	—	—	—
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	84
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	78
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	78
Alejandro Soto L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	14.9%	6.4%	2.4%	.367	4.15	15.9%	10.3%	97	+0.19	3.96	280	76
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	76
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	75
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	73
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	72
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	69
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	69
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	68
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	67
Carlos Hernandez L 2017 · 3.07 FIP	30	SP	3.07	14.7%	4.0%	1.3%	.295	2.83	17.9%	12.4%	73	-0.24	2.83	331	66
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	66
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	66
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	65
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	64
Nick Additon L 2017 · 3.13 FIP	29	SP	3.13	19.3%	9.1%	0.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	217	64
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	64
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.0%	6.5%	1.29	4.38
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bobby Tiefenauer ('52-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.6	63	20.4%*	6.7%*	1.10*	4.53*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*