Aaron McGarity

P Charlotte Knights

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	14	0	19	1.89	1.63	39.4%	7.0%	—	K 32.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.59
2023	28	AAAScranton/Wilk…	51	1	70	5.17	4.54	23.9%	8.3%	—	K 20.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.87
2024	29	AAACWS	55	0	65	2.77	3.13	22.3%	7.1%	—	K 19.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.39
2027PROJ	32	MLBCWS	40	0	42	4.30	4.30	21.1%	7.8%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBCWS	13	0	14	4.45	4.55	20.8%	8.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Arcenio Leon (age 32) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%21.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	7	1	21	81	27	2	0	14%	3.0	22.7%	3.1%	19.6%	0.0%	2.18	1.58	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	7	1	21	81	27	2	0	14%	3.0	33.3%	2.5%	30.9%	0.0%	2.18	0.78	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	36	162	42	11	2	0%	1.6	18.4%	7.8%	10.6%	1.0%	3.50	3.10	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	36	162	42	11	2	0%	1.6	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	1.2%	3.50	2.41	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	19	71	28	5	1	0%	1.4	32.4%	9.2%	23.2%	1.9%	1.89	2.59	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	19	71	28	5	1	0%	1.4	39.4%	7.0%	32.4%	1.4%	1.89	1.63	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	51	1	70	301	72	25	13	2%	1.4	20.6%	7.5%	13.1%	4.7%	5.17	4.87	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	51	1	70	301	72	25	13	2%	1.4	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	4.3%	5.17	4.54	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	55	0	65	269	60	19	5	0%	1.2	19.2%	6.4%	12.8%	2.0%	2.77	3.39	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	55	0	65	269	60	19	5	0%	1.2	19.2%	6.4%	12.8%	2.0%	2.77	3.39	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	55	0	65	269	60	19	5	0%	1.2	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	1.9%	2.77	3.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CWS	40	0	42	177	37	14	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	7.8%	13.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CWS	36	0	38	161	34	14	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.55	0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	CWS	13	0	14	59	12	5	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	12	5	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	71	28	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		150	2	210	884	185	61	23	1%	1.4	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	2.5%	3.55	3.61	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	2	200	841	176	58	21	1%	1.4	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	2.5%	3.55	3.61	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron McGarity (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	21.1%	7.8%	2.9%	—	4.55	20.8%	12.4%	38	+0.25	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	87
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	84
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	81
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	81
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	80
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	79
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	79
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	79
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	79
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	77
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	77
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	77
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	77
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	20.9%	8.1%	1.18	4.37
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*