Jake Brentz

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 32 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	3	1	3	3.38	2.73	35.7%	21.4%	—	K 35.7% · BB 21.4% · FIP 2.80
2024	29	MIX2 levels	34	0	30	11.40	7.90	18.0%	29.2%	—	K 15.4% · BB 28.1% · FIP 6.93
2025	30	MIX2 levels	9	0	8	14.62	6.35	16.7%	29.2%	—	K 16.7% · BB 29.2% · FIP 5.39
2027PROJ	32	MLBCHC	51	0	54	4.49	4.41	26.1%	11.3%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	33	MLBCHC	15	0	16	4.60	4.68	25.0%	11.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ27% MLB	34	MLBCHC	11	0	12	4.80	4.95	24.0%	11.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

FB Velo84

Whiff%81

K%78

xwOBA vs42

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Hideki Okajima (age 32) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.49

FIP4.41

K%26.1%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL-2.3

FB-3.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	6	6	22	99	16	11	2	100%	3.7	11.0%	13.9%	-2.9%	2.8%	4.09	5.48	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	6	6	22	99	16	11	2	100%	3.7	16.2%	11.1%	5.1%	2.0%	4.09	4.33	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	12	56	15	8	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	14.3%	12.5%	0.0%	6.00	2.65	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	12	56	15	8	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	14.3%	12.5%	0.0%	6.00	2.60	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	176	49	24	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	15.3%	6.5%	2.0%	4.50	4.28	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	40	176	49	24	3	0%	1.2	27.8%	13.6%	14.2%	1.7%	4.50	3.43	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	176	45	39	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	24.9%	-4.9%	1.5%	9.92	5.36	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	33	176	45	39	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	22.2%	3.4%	1.1%	9.92	4.72	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	53	236	59	28	5	0%	1.3	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	2.5%	4.27	4.26	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	53	236	59	28	5	0%	1.3	25.0%	11.9%	13.1%	2.1%	4.27	3.69	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	72	0	64	278	76	36	7	0%	0.9	27.3%	12.9%	14.4%	2.7%	3.66	3.93	+0.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	72	0	64	278	76	36	7	0%	0.9	27.3%	12.9%	14.4%	2.5%	3.66	3.83	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	6	44	10	11	1	0%	0.6	22.7%	25.0%	-2.3%	2.3%	24.16	5.59	-0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	6	44	10	11	1	0%	0.6	22.7%	25.0%	-2.3%	2.3%	24.16	7.21	-0.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	3	14	5	3	0	33%	0.9	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	3.38	2.80	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	3	14	5	3	0	33%	0.9	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	3.38	2.73	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	30	178	32	52	4	0%	0.9	15.4%	28.1%	-12.7%	2.9%	11.40	6.93	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	30	178	32	52	4	0%	0.9	15.4%	28.1%	-12.7%	2.9%	11.40	6.93	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	30	178	32	52	4	0%	0.9	18.0%	29.2%	-11.2%	2.2%	11.40	7.90	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	8	48	8	14	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	14.62	5.39	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	8	48	8	14	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	14.62	5.39	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	8	48	8	14	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	14.62	6.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	0	69	316	85	46	8	0%	0.9	26.9%	14.6%	12.3%	2.5%	5.19	4.14	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CHC	51	0	54	228	60	26	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	11.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	48	0	50	211	53	24	7	0%	1.0	25.0%	11.6%	13.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.68	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	CHC	43	0	45	192	46	23	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	3.6%	4.80	4.95	-0.2
2030	35	MLB MLE	CHC	39	0	41	172	40	21	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.3%	10.7%	3.9%	5.06	5.26	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	15	0	16	68	17	8	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.6%	13.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.68	-0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	CHC	11	0	12	51	12	6	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	3.6%	4.80	4.95	-0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	CHC	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.3%	10.7%	3.9%	5.06	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	0	106	472	123	64	14	0%	0.9	26.0%	13.7%	12.3%	2.9%	5.05	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		217	0	200	888	232	121	26	0%	0.9	26.0%	13.7%	12.3%	2.9%	5.05	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		249	7	270	1305	277	236	28	3%	1.1	21.2%	18.1%	3.1%	2.2%	6.46	4.80	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		184	5	200	965	205	175	21	3%	1.1	21.2%	18.1%	3.1%	2.2%	6.46	4.80	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Brentz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	26.1%	11.3%	3.1%	—	4.94	24.1%	12.2%	136	+0.53	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	78
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	75
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.63	23.9%	12.2%	82	-0.08	3.78	233	73
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	72
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	71
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	69
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	68
Mike Myers L 2001 · 3.22 FIP	32	SU	3.22	21.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.263	4.20	15.7%	5.5%	116	+0.98	3.22	533	68
James Jones L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	32	SU	5.35	23.0%	11.4%	5.0%	.315	4.25	18.1%	3.1%	36	-1.10	3.58	127	67
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	66
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	66
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	66
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	65
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	64
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	64
Tim Byrdak L 2005 · 3.45 FIP	31	SU	3.45	23.7%	15.3%	0.8%	.329	4.31	22.0%	10.7%	100	+0.86	2.85	320	63
Kelly Wunsch L 2003 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	20.6%	13.1%	0.6%	.152	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	24	+0.46	3.36	175	63
Pedro Feliciano L 2009 · 3.36 FIP	32	SU	3.36	24.4%	5.8%	2.9%	.272	2.69	20.0%	11.4%	63	-0.67	2.69	378	62
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	52	25.3%	12.6%	1.24	4.84
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*