Kenta Maeda

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 39 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	35	MIX2 levels	25	24	118	3.98	3.65	27.7%	6.8%	1.8	K 27.3% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.70
2024	36	MIX2 levels	30	18	115	6.01	4.62	20.5%	6.2%	0.4	K 19.8% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.84
2025	37	MIX2 levels	27	20	108	5.58	4.35	19.4%	9.6%	0.7	K 16.8% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.45
2027PROJ	39	MLBDET	14	14	85	4.82	4.91	16.9%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ	40	MLBDET	12	12	73	4.88	4.98	17.8%	8.1%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFrancisco Campos (age 42) · Walter Silva (age 39) · Pablo Ortega (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.82

FIP4.91

K%16.9%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

SI (7%)

CU (1%)

FB (27%)

CH (36%)

SL-1.3 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	176	716	179	44	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	3.48	3.24	+3.6
2016	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	176	716	179	44	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.8%	3.48	3.29	+3.5
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	138	578	141	35	22	87%	4.6	25.1%	5.9%	19.2%	3.8%	4.16	3.81	+1.8
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	138	578	141	35	22	87%	4.6	24.4%	6.1%	18.3%	3.8%	4.16	3.89	+1.7
2018	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	39	20	125	532	153	39	13	51%	3.2	28.8%	7.3%	21.4%	2.3%	3.81	2.89	+3.1
2018	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	39	20	125	532	153	39	13	51%	3.2	28.8%	7.3%	21.4%	2.4%	3.81	2.94	+3.0
2019	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	37	26	154	624	169	50	22	70%	4.2	27.1%	8.0%	19.1%	3.4%	4.04	3.68	+2.2
2019	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	37	26	154	624	169	50	22	70%	4.2	27.1%	8.0%	19.1%	3.5%	4.04	3.74	+2.1
2020	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	11	11	67	248	80	10	9	100%	6.1	32.3%	4.0%	28.2%	3.6%	2.70	2.87	+1.7
2020	32	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	11	11	67	248	80	10	9	100%	6.1	32.3%	4.0%	28.2%	3.6%	2.70	2.91	+1.7
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	467	118	32	17	100%	5.0	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	3.5%	4.57	3.79	+1.5
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	110	467	118	32	17	100%	5.0	25.3%	6.9%	18.4%	3.6%	4.57	3.83	+1.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	483	134	33	18	96%	4.7	27.3%	6.7%	20.5%	3.7%	3.98	3.70	+1.7
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	118	483	134	33	18	96%	4.7	27.7%	6.8%	20.9%	3.7%	3.98	3.65	+1.8
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	115	498	102	31	22	60%	3.8	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	4.7%	6.01	4.84	+0.1
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	115	498	102	31	22	60%	3.8	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	4.7%	6.01	4.84	+0.1
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	115	498	102	31	22	60%	3.8	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	4.4%	6.01	4.62	+0.4
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	108	469	91	45	14	74%	4.0	16.8%	8.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.58	4.45	+0.6
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	108	469	91	45	14	74%	4.0	16.8%	8.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.58	4.45	+0.6
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	108	469	91	45	14	74%	4.0	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	3.0%	5.58	4.35	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			226	172	987	4086	1055	272	142	76%	4.4	25.8%	6.7%	19.2%	3.5%	4.20	3.66	+14.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	DET	14	14	85	359	61	29	12	100%	6.1	16.9%	8.2%	8.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	307	55	25	12	100%	6.1	17.8%	8.1%	9.7%	3.8%	4.97	5.07	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	73	308	55	25	11	100%	6.1	17.8%	8.1%	9.7%	3.6%	4.88	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	184	1059	4393	1110	297	153	77%	4.5	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	3.5%	4.24	3.74	+14.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	35	200	829	210	56	29	77%	4.4	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	3.5%	4.24	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		253	199	1111	4615	1152	312	156	79%	4.4	25.0%	6.8%	18.2%	3.4%	4.26	3.71	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	831	207	56	28	79%	4.4	25.0%	6.8%	18.2%	3.4%	4.26	3.71	+2.7

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Kenta Maeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	16.9%	8.2%	3.3%	—	5.07	17.8%	9.7%	73	+0.16	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	67
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	65
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	60
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	55
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	53
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	37
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	114	24.6%	7.1%	1.35	4.29
Mickey Harris ('40-'52, 8 WAR*)	5.2	117	23.2%*	8.1%*	1.19*	4.34*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Billy Loes ('50-'61, 10 WAR*)	6.0	119	20.9%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.28*
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenta Maeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	16.9%	8.2%	3.3%	—	5.07	17.8%	9.7%	73	+0.16	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	67
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	65
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	60
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	55
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	53
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	37
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	24

Kenta Maeda

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps