Erick Mejia

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	AAAWSH	1	1	0.00	4.10	20.0%	20.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.94
2025	30	MIX3 levels	45	49	4.59	3.88	27.1%	15.9%	—	K 21.7% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.65
2026	31	MIX3 levels	30	33	1.09	2.71	30.2%	10.8%	—	K 24.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	32	MLBWSH	17	18	4.86	4.86	22.9%	14.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	33	MLBWSH	6	6	4.95	5.05	22.5%	14.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Dan Winkler (age 32) · Neil Wagner (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%22.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	214	58	34	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	16.8%	4.9%	2.3%	4.59	4.65	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	214	58	34	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	16.8%	4.9%	2.3%	4.59	4.65	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	49	214	58	34	4	0%	1.1	27.1%	15.9%	11.2%	1.9%	4.59	3.88	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	33	139	42	15	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.4%	10.9%	2.2%	1.09	3.98	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	33	139	42	15	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.4%	10.9%	2.2%	1.09	3.98	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	33	139	42	15	2	0%	1.1	30.2%	10.8%	19.4%	1.4%	1.09	2.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	WSH	17	0	18	76	17	11	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.0%	8.9%	2.8%	4.86	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	19	12	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.95	5.05	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.95	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.95	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	128	32	0%	1.1	22.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.95	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		76	0	83	358	81	55	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.5%	7.2%	2.2%	3.14	4.38	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		183	0	200	863	195	134	19	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.5%	7.2%	2.2%	3.14	4.38	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	22.9%	14.0%	2.8%	—	5.05	22.5%	8.5%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	81
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	81
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	75
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	75
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	74
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	73
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	73
Chad Fox R 2003 · 3.70 FIP	32	SU	3.70	23.2%	13.6%	1.5%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	194	73
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	72
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	71
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	70
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	70
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	70
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	70