Miguel Díaz

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 221 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	61	3	71	4.18	2.45	28.8%	10.0%	1.8	K 25.5% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.76
2024	29	MIX2 levels	38	1	47	4.21	1.89	26.6%	8.4%	1.5	K 23.2% · BB 7.7% · FIP 2.11
2025	30	AAASF	50	0	57	3.45	3.76	23.1%	13.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	32	MLBSF	61	0	64	4.70	4.74	21.1%	11.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBSF	21	0	22	4.89	5.02	20.2%	12.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBSF	16	0	17	5.15	5.33	19.3%	12.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%63

FB Velo58

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.70

FIP4.74

K%21.1%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.258

FB (30%)

CH (50%)

SL (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	7	5	20	81	23	5	1	71%	2.9	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	1.7%	2.21	3.40	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	7	5	20	81	23	5	1	71%	2.9	28.4%	6.2%	22.2%	1.2%	2.21	2.21	—
2016	21	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	15	95	404	91	28	7	58%	3.6	16.7%	8.2%	8.5%	1.9%	3.71	3.79	—
2016	21	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	15	95	404	91	28	7	58%	3.6	22.5%	6.9%	15.6%	1.7%	3.71	3.03	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	5	51	230	40	29	11	15%	1.5	17.2%	13.0%	4.2%	5.6%	6.53	6.37	-1.1
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	5	51	230	40	29	11	15%	1.5	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	4.8%	6.53	6.04	-0.9
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	11	97	419	111	53	8	31%	2.8	23.1%	13.5%	9.5%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	+0.4
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	11	97	419	111	53	8	31%	2.8	26.5%	12.6%	13.8%	1.9%	3.62	3.52	+1.2
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	8	37	157	44	11	11	53%	2.4	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	8.3%	4.42	6.49	-0.7
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	8	37	157	44	11	11	53%	2.4	28.0%	7.0%	21.0%	7.0%	4.42	5.50	-0.3
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	4	58	254	67	33	12	10%	1.5	25.4%	13.3%	12.1%	4.6%	4.68	5.15	-0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	4	58	254	67	33	12	10%	1.5	26.4%	13.0%	13.4%	4.7%	4.68	5.20	-0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	69	299	72	32	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.1%	10.3%	1.9%	4.19	3.73	+0.7
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	69	299	72	32	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.7%	13.4%	1.7%	4.19	3.35	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	3	71	309	89	31	3	5%	1.2	25.5%	9.2%	16.3%	1.2%	4.18	2.76	+1.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	3	71	309	89	31	3	5%	1.2	28.8%	10.0%	18.8%	1.0%	4.18	2.45	+1.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	3%	1.2	23.2%	7.7%	15.6%	0.0%	4.21	2.11	+1.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	3%	1.2	23.2%	7.7%	15.6%	0.0%	4.21	2.11	+1.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	47	203	54	17	0	3%	1.2	26.6%	8.4%	18.2%	0.0%	4.21	1.89	+1.5
2025	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	2.0%	3.45	4.04	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	2.0%	3.45	4.04	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	57	238	55	32	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	1.7%	3.45	3.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	8	127	549	132	62	22	9%	1.4	24.0%	11.3%	12.8%	4.0%	4.81	4.73	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	SF	61	0	64	270	57	32	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.9%	9.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SF	56	0	59	248	50	31	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.1%	4.89	5.02	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	53	225	44	29	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.9%	6.4%	3.4%	5.15	5.33	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	19	12	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.1%	4.89	5.02	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	SF	16	0	17	72	14	9	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.9%	6.4%	3.4%	5.15	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	8	166	713	165	83	27	6%	1.3	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.8%	4.85	4.72	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	10	200	858	199	100	32	6%	1.3	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.8%	4.85	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		366	52	601	2594	564	280	71	14%	1.6	21.7%	10.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.15	4.12	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	17	200	863	188	93	23	14%	1.6	21.7%	10.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.15	4.12	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.1%	11.9%	2.8%	—	5.17	19.8%	7.2%	112	+0.43	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	78
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	73
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	73
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	73
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	72
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	72
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	72
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	72
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	72
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	21.9%	12.1%	1.34	4.86
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57