James Kaprielian

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MIX3 levels	29	29	148	4.51	4.57	17.4%	10.0%	0.6	K 17.0% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.63
2023	29	MIX2 levels	16	13	69	5.71	4.33	20.4%	10.2%	0.5	K 20.4% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.68
2024	30	MIX3 levels	14	14	57	6.59	6.38	17.8%	14.2%	—	K 14.2% · BB 12.6% · FIP 6.78
2027PROJ	33	MLBTOR	9	9	54	4.69	4.70	21.6%	9.9%	0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBTOR	1	1	3	4.88	5.01	20.6%	10.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.16	5.34	19.7%	11.0%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

Whiff%48

K%38

xwOBA vs26

FB Velo19

CompsJuan Delgadillo (age 32) · Manuel Flores (age 33) · Andres Ivan Meza (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.69

FIP4.70

K%21.6%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SL-1.2

CH-2.4

FB-3.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees2	2	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	1.2	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	11.57	3.87	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees2	2	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	1.2	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	11.57	3.96	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	3	3	18	65	22	3	1	100%	6.0	26.1%	5.3%	20.8%	2.2%	1.50	2.80	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	Tampa Yankees	3	3	18	65	22	3	1	100%	6.0	33.8%	4.6%	29.2%	1.5%	1.50	1.88	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	16	68	277	75	16	8	84%	3.6	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	3.6%	3.18	4.17	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	16	68	277	75	16	8	84%	3.6	27.1%	5.8%	21.3%	2.9%	3.18	3.13	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	2	0	4	17	4	2	2	0%	1.8	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	11.8%	7.36	9.06	-0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	2	0	4	17	4	2	2	0%	1.8	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	11.8%	7.36	9.65	-0.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	124	523	128	42	19	88%	5.0	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	4.2%	4.06	4.35	+0.8
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	124	523	128	42	19	88%	5.0	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	3.6%	4.06	4.04	+1.3
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	148	637	111	64	19	100%	5.1	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.63	+0.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	148	637	111	64	19	100%	5.1	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.57	+0.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	69	313	64	32	9	81%	4.3	20.4%	10.7%	9.6%	3.5%	5.71	4.68	+0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	69	313	64	32	9	81%	4.3	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.9%	5.71	4.33	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	57	275	49	39	13	100%	4.1	14.2%	12.6%	1.6%	6.0%	6.59	6.78	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	57	275	49	39	13	100%	4.1	14.2%	12.6%	1.6%	6.0%	6.59	6.78	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	57	275	49	39	13	100%	4.1	17.8%	14.2%	3.6%	4.7%	6.59	6.38	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			66	58	318	1376	282	132	46	88%	4.8	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.61	4.45	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	TOR	9	9	54	228	49	23	7	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.9%	11.6%	3.2%	4.69	4.70	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	49	206	42	21	7	100%	6.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.5%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	44	185	36	20	7	100%	6.2	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.9%	5.16	5.34	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	TOR	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.5%	4.88	5.01	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.9%	5.16	5.34	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	59	321	1389	285	133	46	88%	4.8	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.42	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	36	200	865	178	83	29	88%	4.8	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		110	97	490	2118	420	203	82	88%	4.5	19.8%	9.6%	10.3%	3.9%	4.57	4.76	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	864	171	83	33	88%	4.5	19.8%	9.6%	10.3%	3.9%	4.57	4.76	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Kaprielian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	21.6%	9.9%	3.2%	—	5.17	20.2%	9.5%	92	+0.47	—	—	—
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	70
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	66
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	64
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	62
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	62
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	62
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	61
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	61
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	60
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	60
Salvador Valdez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	12.8%	7.5%	1.1%	.310	3.99	11.5%	4.9%	138	+0.39	3.60	326	60
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	2.24	259	60
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	59
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	58
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	58
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	58
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	58
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	58
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	58
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	77	20.6%	9.9%	1.32	4.70
Al Cicotte ('57-'62, -0 WAR*)	1.3	65	19.6%*	10.1%*	1.26*	4.68*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Roansy Contreras ('25)	1.2	82	19.3%	9.8%	1.38	4.77
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Allyn Stout ('31-'43, -2 WAR*)	2.3	92	21.1%*	10.6%*	1.20*	5.00*