Miguel Castro

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 32 RHP 6'7" / 201 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MLBARI	75	0	65	4.31	3.87	22.4%	8.2%	0.5
2024	29	MIX3 levels	15	2	20	4.12	4.32	17.6%	5.9%	0.1	K 12.5% · BB 4.7% · FIP 5.36
2025	30	MIX2 levels	23	0	26	3.51	4.27	22.4%	12.1%	0.1	K 21.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	32	MLBCWS	50	0	53	4.35	4.31	23.3%	8.9%	0.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBCWS	46	0	48	4.49	4.59	22.4%	9.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ	34	MLBCWS	42	0	44	4.73	4.90	21.5%	9.9%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control49Command46FB velo59

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Jumbo Diaz (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.35

FIP4.31

K%23.3%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

SI (60%)

CH (11%)

SL (29%)

FB-0.5 (60%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	5	56	253	56	26	8	11%	1.2	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.2%	3.86	4.61	-0.0
2015	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	5	56	253	56	26	8	11%	1.2	22.1%	10.3%	11.9%	3.2%	3.86	4.35	+0.1
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	30	139	27	12	8	0%	0.9	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	5.2%	8.31	5.55	-0.4
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	30	139	27	12	8	0%	0.9	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	5.8%	8.31	5.94	-0.5
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	91	372	49	30	9	2%	2.0	12.6%	8.2%	4.4%	2.3%	3.77	4.32	+0.2
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	91	372	49	30	9	2%	2.0	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	2.4%	3.77	4.30	+0.3
2018	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	63	1	86	376	57	43	9	2%	1.4	15.2%	11.4%	3.7%	2.2%	3.96	4.45	+0.1
2018	23	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	63	1	86	376	57	43	9	2%	1.4	15.2%	11.4%	3.7%	2.4%	3.96	4.63	-0.1
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	73	319	71	38	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.9%	10.3%	2.8%	4.66	4.28	+0.2
2019	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	73	319	71	38	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.9%	10.3%	3.1%	4.66	4.49	+0.1
2020	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	26	0	25	115	38	13	4	0%	0.9	33.0%	11.3%	21.7%	3.5%	4.01	3.66	+0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	26	0	25	115	38	13	4	0%	0.9	33.0%	11.3%	21.7%	3.5%	4.01	3.71	+0.2
2021	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	69	2	70	303	77	43	7	3%	1.0	25.4%	14.2%	11.2%	2.3%	3.45	4.02	+0.4
2021	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	69	2	70	303	77	43	7	3%	1.0	25.4%	14.2%	11.2%	2.3%	3.45	4.04	+0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	34	153	38	18	2	0%	0.8	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	1.4%	4.01	3.34	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	34	153	38	18	2	0%	0.8	24.8%	11.8%	13.1%	1.3%	4.01	3.22	+0.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	0	65	268	60	22	8	0%	0.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.2%	4.31	3.98	+0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	0	65	268	60	22	8	0%	0.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.31	3.87	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	2	20	85	15	5	3	13%	1.3	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	5.0%	4.12	5.36	-0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	2	20	85	15	5	3	13%	1.3	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	5.0%	4.12	5.36	-0.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	2	20	85	15	5	3	13%	1.3	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	3.5%	4.12	4.32	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.9%	3.51	4.01	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.9%	3.51	4.01	+0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	26	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	2.8%	3.51	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			425	4	467	2028	414	219	59	1%	1.1	20.4%	10.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.24	4.38	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CWS	50	0	53	224	52	20	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	3.0%	4.35	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CWS	46	0	48	204	46	19	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.4%	13.1%	3.3%	4.49	4.59	-0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	CWS	42	0	44	186	40	18	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.9%	11.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.90	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	CWS	46	0	48	203	45	19	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.4%	13.1%	3.3%	4.49	4.59	-0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	CWS	42	0	44	186	40	18	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.9%	11.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.90	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		513	4	559	2418	500	256	72	1%	1.1	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.30	4.34	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	1	200	865	179	92	26	1%	1.1	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.30	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		501	11	575	2490	494	261	70	2%	1.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.29	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	4	200	866	172	91	24	2%	1.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.29	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	23.3%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.74	22.0%	12.4%	92	+0.43	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	87
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	85
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	83
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	81
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	81
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	80
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	79
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	75
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	75
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	75
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	75
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	74
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	61	20.9%	11.2%	1.16	4.31
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Scott Eyre ('09)	3.2	59	18.6%	11.5%	1.15	4.23
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Barry Jones ('86-'93, 1 WAR*)	2.2	62	17.4%*	10.4%*	0.96*	4.17*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*