Casey Lawrence

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 39 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	36	AAASEA	29	29	165	5.95	5.34	14.9%	6.6%	—	K 12.8% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.25
2025	37	MIX2 levels	26	19	118	5.12	4.56	12.0%	3.9%	0.5	K 10.5% · BB 3.5% · FIP 4.46
2026	38	AAAPHI	30	30	162	4.93	4.46	14.5%	3.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 3.1% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	39	MLBPHI	14	14	85	4.99	5.15	10.2%	3.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ0% MLB	40	MLBPHI	—	—	0	5.14	5.23	12.0%	3.5%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsWalter Silva (age 39) · Francisco Campos (age 42) · Pablo Ortega (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA4.99

FIP5.15

K%10.2%

BB%3.6%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1087.9

Whiff%

p1014.2%

p108.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.421

CT (2%)

SI (40%)

SL-1.1 (29%)

CH-1.1 (21%)

FB-1.3 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	168	735	97	31	10	100%	6.2	10.4%	4.8%	5.6%	1.4%	4.56	3.57	—
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	168	735	97	31	10	100%	6.2	13.2%	4.2%	9.0%	1.4%	4.56	3.27	—
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	162	688	108	37	13	100%	5.8	13.3%	5.7%	7.6%	1.8%	4.17	3.67	—
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	162	688	108	37	13	100%	5.8	15.7%	5.4%	10.3%	1.9%	4.17	3.50	—
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	12	123	532	100	32	19	29%	3.0	17.7%	6.1%	11.6%	3.8%	4.84	4.49	+0.1
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	12	123	532	100	32	19	29%	3.0	18.8%	6.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.84	4.27	+0.4
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	121	509	103	22	13	53%	4.0	18.1%	4.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.08	3.77	+1.6
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	16	121	509	103	22	13	53%	4.0	20.2%	4.3%	15.9%	2.6%	4.08	3.34	+2.3
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	86	345	80	17	12	56%	3.4	20.0%	5.2%	14.8%	3.7%	4.40	4.08	—
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	86	345	80	17	12	56%	3.4	23.2%	4.9%	18.3%	3.5%	4.40	3.65	—
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	144	562	117	21	23	79%	5.0	18.6%	3.9%	14.7%	4.6%	3.38	4.55	+0.6
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	144	562	117	21	23	79%	5.0	20.8%	3.7%	17.1%	4.1%	3.38	3.99	+1.6
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	131	576	110	39	25	58%	3.6	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	4.9%	5.14	5.15	-0.4
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	21	131	576	110	39	25	58%	3.6	19.1%	6.8%	12.3%	4.3%	5.14	4.79	+0.2
2024	36	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	29	165	727	108	48	34	100%	5.7	12.8%	5.9%	6.8%	4.5%	5.95	5.25	—
2024	36	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	29	165	727	108	48	34	100%	5.7	12.8%	5.9%	6.8%	4.5%	5.95	5.25	—
2024	36	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	29	29	165	727	108	48	34	100%	5.7	14.9%	6.6%	8.3%	4.7%	5.95	5.34	—
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	118	510	61	20	18	73%	4.5	10.5%	3.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.12	4.46	+0.6
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	118	510	61	20	18	73%	4.5	10.5%	3.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.12	4.46	+0.6
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	118	510	61	20	18	73%	4.5	12.0%	3.9%	8.0%	3.5%	5.12	4.56	+0.5
2026	38	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	30	30	162	695	101	24	27	100%	5.4	12.5%	3.1%	9.4%	4.3%	4.93	4.78	—
2026	38	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	30	30	162	695	101	24	27	100%	5.4	12.5%	3.1%	9.4%	4.3%	4.93	4.78	—
2026	38	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	30	30	162	695	101	24	27	100%	5.4	14.5%	3.5%	11.1%	3.9%	4.93	4.46	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	2	142	651	104	43	27	3%	2.2	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	4.1%	6.42	5.02	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	PHI	14	14	85	359	36	13	14	100%	6.1	10.2%	3.6%	6.5%	3.8%	4.99	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	73	307	37	11	13	100%	6.1	12.0%	3.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.14	5.23	-0.3
2028	40	MLB CTX	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.0%	3.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.14	5.23	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	2	142	651	104	43	27	3%	2.2	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	4.1%	6.42	4.86	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		92	3	200	919	147	61	38	3%	2.2	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	4.1%	6.42	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		301	219	1380	5879	859	289	204	73%	4.6	14.6%	4.9%	9.7%	3.5%	4.68	4.39	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	32	200	852	124	42	30	73%	4.6	14.6%	4.9%	9.7%	3.5%	4.68	4.39	-0.4

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Casey Lawrence (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	10.2%	3.6%	3.8%	—	5.23	12.0%	8.4%	73	+0.08	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	64
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	63
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	61
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	47
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	25

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	13.4%	5.6%	1.57	5.70
Christian Bergman ('18)	1.1	54	13.8%	5.2%	1.67	5.59
Edgar Gonzalez ('13)	1.8	61	14.3%	7.8%	1.59	5.92
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Jose Acevedo ('05)	1.8	74	15.5%	6.9%	1.73	5.74
Frank Gabler ('35-'38, -2 WAR*)	1.9	94	14.6%*	6.9%*	1.78*	5.55*
Sergio Valdez ('86-'95, -2 WAR*)	1.5	61	18.1%*	8.0%*	1.79*	5.46*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Lawrence (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	10.2%	3.6%	3.8%	—	5.23	12.0%	8.4%	73	+0.08	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	64
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	63
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	61
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	47
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	25

Casey Lawrence

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps