Dallas Keuchel

P Las Vegas Aviators
Age 39 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA
Overview
AAASP
YearAgeLvl / TeamGGSIPERAFIPK%BB%WARMLE rates
202436MIX2 levels1717884.214.7815.3%8.2%0.1K 13.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.78
202537AAAKC77363.533.5219.2%7.7%—K 16.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.74
202638AAAOAK77256.486.3817.2%16.4%—K 14.8% · BB 14.7% · FIP 6.32
2027PROJ39MLBOAK77434.975.4113.8%10.4%-0.2
2028PROJ40MLBOAK66375.495.8412.6%11.2%-0.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024
xwOBA vs17
Whiff%15
FB Velo10
K%10
CompsJason Lane (age 38) · Francisco Campos (age 42) · Walter Silva (age 39)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136
ERA4.97
FIP5.41
K%13.8%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%3.3%
Proj IP43
Value2027 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
K: -3.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-3KBB: -1.0 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -1.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-2CONTACTSTAM: +1.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: -0.43 (43 IP)-0.4WAR
-0.2-0.42728
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—50
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†3030
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1088.1
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
CH+1.9 (28%)
SI (57%)
CT-2.1 (15%)
FB-5.3 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
201224MLB MLEHouston Astros161685377383814100%5.310.1%10.1%0.0%3.8%5.275.62-0.7
201224MLB RAWHouston Astros161685377383814100%5.310.1%10.1%0.0%3.7%5.275.68-0.7
201325MLB MLEHouston Astros3122154682123492071%5.018.0%7.2%10.9%3.0%5.154.14+1.4
201325MLB RAWHouston Astros3122154682123492071%5.018.0%7.2%10.9%2.9%5.154.15+1.4
201426MLB MLEHouston Astros29292008081464611100%6.918.1%5.7%12.4%1.4%2.923.06+4.7
201426MLB RAWHouston Astros29292008081464611100%6.918.1%5.7%12.4%1.4%2.923.04+4.7
201527MLB MLEHouston Astros33332329112165117100%7.023.7%5.6%18.1%1.9%2.482.86+6.1
201527MLB RAWHouston Astros33332329112165117100%7.023.7%5.6%18.1%1.9%2.482.85+6.1
201628MLB MLEHouston Astros26261687011444720100%6.520.5%6.7%13.8%2.9%4.553.82+2.2
201628MLB RAWHouston Astros26261687011444720100%6.520.5%6.7%13.8%2.9%4.553.77+2.3
201729MIX MLE2 levels24241495961284815100%6.221.4%8.0%13.4%2.6%2.853.76+2.0
201729MIX RAW2 levels24241495961284815100%6.221.5%8.1%13.4%2.5%2.853.66+2.2
201830MLB MLEHouston Astros34342058741535818100%6.017.5%6.6%10.9%2.1%3.743.62+3.2
201830MLB RAWHouston Astros34342058741535818100%6.017.5%6.6%10.9%2.1%3.743.60+3.2
201931MIX MLE3 levels21211275411044016100%6.018.7%7.8%10.9%3.3%3.554.31+0.9
201931MIX RAW3 levels21211275411044016100%6.019.2%7.4%11.8%3.0%3.554.05+1.3
202032MLB MLEChicago White Sox11116325742172100%5.816.3%6.6%9.7%0.8%1.992.98+1.5
202032MLB RAWChicago White Sox11116325742172100%5.816.3%6.6%9.7%0.8%1.992.99+1.5
202133MLB MLEChicago White Sox323016272095582594%5.113.2%8.1%5.1%3.4%5.284.88+0.0
202133MLB RAWChicago White Sox323016272095582594%5.113.2%8.1%5.1%3.5%5.285.01-0.2
202234MIX MLE3 levels202096444844212100%4.817.1%9.7%7.4%2.6%6.944.29+0.7
202234MIX RAW3 levels202096444844212100%4.818.9%9.5%9.5%2.7%6.944.29+0.7
202335MIX MLE2 levels1612703045330675%4.416.1%9.5%6.7%2.1%3.754.07+0.7
202335MIX RAW2 levels1612703045330675%4.417.4%9.9%7.6%2.0%3.753.99+0.8
202436MIX MLE2 levels171788367563013100%5.213.5%7.6%6.0%3.4%4.214.78+0.1
202436MIX MLE2 levels171788367563013100%5.213.5%7.6%6.0%3.4%4.214.78+0.1
202436MIX RAW2 levels171788367563013100%5.215.3%8.2%7.1%3.5%4.214.78+0.1
202537AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers773615630123100%5.116.5%6.9%9.6%2.1%3.533.74—
202537AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers773615630123100%5.116.5%6.9%9.6%2.1%3.533.74—
202537AAA RAWOmaha Storm Chasers773615630123100%5.119.2%7.7%11.5%1.9%3.533.52—
202638AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators772511620195100%3.614.8%14.7%0.1%4.7%6.486.32—
202638AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators772511620195100%3.614.8%14.7%0.1%4.7%6.486.32—
202638AAA RAWLas Vegas Aviators772511620195100%3.617.2%16.4%0.9%4.3%6.486.38—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career—28226716426955125450417595%5.818.0%7.2%10.8%2.5%4.043.88+20.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
202739MLBOAK774318225196100%6.113.8%10.4%3.3%3.2%4.975.41-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
202840MLB MLEOAK663715620176100%6.212.6%11.2%1.4%3.7%5.495.84-0.4
202840MLB CTXOAK663715620176100%6.212.6%11.2%1.4%3.7%5.495.84-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— RAW28827316797111127452118195%5.817.9%7.3%10.6%2.5%4.073.91+19.9
/ 200 IP— RAW3433200847152622295%5.817.9%7.3%10.6%2.5%4.073.91+2.4
Career— MLE32430918587854140358220295%5.717.9%7.4%10.5%2.6%3.973.94+19.7
/ 200 IP— MLE3533200845151632295%5.717.9%7.4%10.5%2.6%3.973.94+2.3

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player162sIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION8.612317.8%7.6%0.994.09
Russ Meyer ('46-'59, 15 WAR*)7.713918.9%*7.6%*1.06*4.30*
Dave Koslo ('41-'54, 18 WAR*)8.014517.5%*7.2%*1.06*4.04*
Denny Neagle ('03)9.514517.6%7.4%1.194.24
Bob Porterfield ('48-'59, 19 WAR*)7.814315.5%*7.2%*1.00*4.12*
Gavin Floyd ('16)6.210418.4%7.8%1.154.37
Brandon McCarthy ('18)6.19417.6%6.3%1.074.20