Bryan Shaw

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 39 RHP 6'1" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	35	MIX2 levels	61	69	4.41	3.48	22.5%	10.6%	0.9	K 21.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.49
2024	36	MIX2 levels	44	45	4.57	3.92	18.2%	13.9%	0.3	K 15.8% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.74
2025	37	AAASEA	19	15	5.87	4.86	14.1%	20.0%	—	K 12.1% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	39	MLBSEA	46	48	4.58	4.56	20.9%	11.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ	40	MLBSEA	40	42	4.83	4.99	19.7%	11.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff46Control45Command44FB velo50

CompsTakashi Saito (age 39) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39) · Juan Sandoval (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.56

K%20.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

CT+1.2 (64%)

SI (6%)

CU (12%)

CH-0.7 (5%)

FB-1.2 (6%)

SL-2.3 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	0	28	122	24	7	2	0%	0.9	19.7%	5.7%	13.9%	1.6%	2.54	3.06	+0.5
2011	23	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	0	28	122	24	7	2	0%	0.9	19.7%	5.7%	13.9%	1.6%	2.54	3.06	+0.5
2012	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	64	0	59	252	41	21	4	0%	0.9	16.3%	8.3%	7.9%	1.6%	3.49	3.64	+0.6
2012	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	64	0	59	252	41	21	4	0%	0.9	16.3%	8.3%	7.9%	1.6%	3.49	3.66	+0.6
2013	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	70	0	75	316	73	26	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	1.3%	3.24	2.89	+1.5
2013	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	70	0	75	316	73	26	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	1.3%	3.24	2.89	+1.5
2014	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	80	0	76	313	64	18	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	5.8%	14.7%	1.9%	2.59	3.16	+1.3
2014	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	80	0	76	313	64	18	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	5.8%	14.7%	1.9%	2.59	3.15	+1.3
2015	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	74	0	64	265	54	18	8	0%	0.9	20.4%	6.8%	13.6%	3.0%	2.95	3.90	+0.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	74	0	64	265	54	18	8	0%	0.9	20.4%	6.8%	13.6%	3.0%	2.95	3.88	+0.5
2016	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	75	0	67	275	69	25	8	0%	0.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.73	+0.6
2016	28	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	75	0	67	275	69	25	8	0%	0.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.71	+0.7
2017	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	79	0	77	312	73	19	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	1.6%	3.52	2.78	+1.6
2017	29	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	79	0	77	312	73	19	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	1.6%	3.52	2.79	+1.6
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	57	268	55	29	10	0%	0.9	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.1%	6.04	4.36	+0.1
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	57	268	55	29	10	0%	0.9	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.7%	6.04	4.99	-0.3
2019	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	70	0	72	311	58	28	12	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	3.4%	5.38	4.54	+0.0
2019	31	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	70	0	72	311	58	28	12	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	3.9%	5.38	4.82	-0.2
2020	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	6	0	6	38	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.5%	15.8%	-5.3%	2.6%	18.00	5.66	-0.1
2020	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	6	0	6	38	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.5%	15.8%	-5.3%	2.6%	18.00	6.93	-0.2
2021	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	81	0	77	334	71	38	10	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.0%	3.49	4.39	+0.1
2021	33	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	81	0	77	334	71	38	10	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.0%	3.49	4.42	+0.1
2022	34	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	60	2	58	261	52	25	9	3%	1.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.5%	5.40	4.53	+0.0
2022	34	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	60	2	58	261	52	25	9	3%	1.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.4%	5.40	4.61	-0.0
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	69	293	66	31	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	1.7%	4.41	3.49	+0.9
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	69	293	66	31	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.7%	4.41	3.48	+0.9
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	45	209	38	29	2	0%	1.0	15.8%	12.6%	3.2%	0.7%	4.57	3.74	+0.4
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	45	209	38	29	2	0%	1.0	15.8%	12.6%	3.2%	0.7%	4.57	3.74	+0.4
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	45	209	38	29	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	13.9%	4.3%	1.0%	4.57	3.92	+0.3
2025	37	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	0	15	85	12	17	0	0%	0.8	12.1%	18.0%	-5.9%	0.0%	5.87	4.35	—
2025	37	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	0	15	85	12	17	0	0%	0.8	12.1%	18.0%	-5.9%	0.0%	5.87	4.35	—
2025	37	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	19	0	15	85	12	17	0	0%	0.8	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	0.0%	5.87	4.86	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			796	2	764	3270	681	278	82	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	2.5%	3.96	3.80	+6.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	SEA	46	0	48	203	42	22	5	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.7%	4.58	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	SEA	40	0	42	175	35	20	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.83	4.99	-0.2
2028	40	MLB CTX	SEA	40	0	42	177	35	21	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.83	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		836	2	806	3445	716	298	87	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.5%	4.00	3.84	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		207	0	200	855	178	74	22	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.5%	4.00	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		879	2	847	3654	745	330	82	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.0%	11.3%	2.3%	4.04	3.76	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		208	0	200	863	176	78	19	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.0%	11.3%	2.3%	4.04	3.76	+1.6

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Bryan Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.9%	11.0%	2.7%	—	4.99	19.7%	8.1%	42	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	76
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	75
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	72
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	65
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	56
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	33
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	61	20.8%	9.4%	0.98	4.03
Guillermo Mota ('12)	4.3	61	19.3%	9.2%	0.95	3.94
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Kevin Gregg ('15)	3.6	65	21.0%	10.5%	0.97	4.24
Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*)	3.6	55	20.3%*	10.4%*	0.83*	3.70*
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.9%	11.0%	2.7%	—	4.99	19.7%	8.1%	42	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	76
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	75
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	72
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	65
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	56
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	33
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	31

Bryan Shaw

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps