Nathan Eovaldi

P Texas Rangers

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 14.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	34	MLBTEX	29	29	171	3.80	3.64	23.9%	6.0%	2.6
2025	35	MLBTEX	22	22	130	1.73	2.58	26.0%	4.0%	3.9
2026	36	MLBTEX	27	23	146	4.20	3.99	23.5%	5.7%	1.6
2027PROJ	37	MLBTEX	22	22	129	3.75	3.81	24.4%	5.4%	1.7
2028PROJ	38	MLBTEX	18	18	111	4.20	4.39	23.3%	6.1%	0.9
2029PROJ	39	MLBTEX	16	16	95	4.58	4.83	22.1%	6.8%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service14.076First FA2028Options4NTC

2027Ext$25M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%76

K%57

FB Velo48

xwOBA vs44

CompsHiroki Kuroda (age 37) · Masato Yoshii (age 37) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.75

FIP3.81

K%24.4%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%19.0%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$47M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p7629.4%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SI (7%)

CU (22%)

CT-2.0 (19%)

FB-6.7 (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2011

Service 14.076 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$25M	+1.7	$14M	-$11M
Totals		$25M		$14M	-$11M

Options · projected decision
2028	PLAYER OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	PLAYER OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2030	CLUB OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$2.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	10	6	35	146	23	20	2	60%	3.5	15.8%	13.7%	2.1%	1.3%	3.63	4.23	+0.3
2011	21	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	10	6	35	146	23	20	2	60%	3.5	15.8%	13.7%	2.1%	1.4%	3.63	4.25	+0.3
2012	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	22	22	119	526	78	44	10	100%	5.4	14.8%	8.4%	6.5%	2.0%	4.30	4.01	+1.3
2012	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	22	22	119	526	78	44	10	100%	5.4	14.8%	8.4%	6.5%	1.9%	4.30	3.99	+1.3
2013	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	18	18	106	451	78	37	7	100%	5.9	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	1.6%	3.39	3.58	+1.7
2013	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	18	18	106	451	78	37	7	100%	5.9	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	1.6%	3.39	3.53	+1.8
2014	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	33	200	854	142	38	14	100%	6.1	16.6%	4.4%	12.2%	1.7%	4.37	3.21	+4.2
2014	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	33	33	200	854	142	38	14	100%	6.1	16.6%	4.4%	12.2%	1.6%	4.37	3.16	+4.3
2015	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	27	27	154	673	121	49	10	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	1.4%	4.20	3.27	+3.1
2015	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	27	27	154	673	121	49	10	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	1.5%	4.20	3.33	+3.0
2016	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	24	21	125	525	97	38	23	88%	5.2	18.5%	7.2%	11.2%	4.1%	4.76	4.71	+0.3
2016	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	24	21	125	525	97	38	23	88%	5.2	18.5%	7.2%	11.2%	4.4%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2018	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	121	501	114	19	17	96%	4.7	22.2%	4.2%	18.0%	3.2%	4.31	3.49	+2.1
2018	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	121	501	114	19	17	96%	4.7	22.8%	3.8%	19.0%	3.4%	4.31	3.51	+2.0
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	69	306	73	36	16	50%	2.9	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	5.4%	5.90	5.59	-0.5
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	12	69	306	73	36	16	50%	2.9	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	5.2%	5.90	5.58	-0.5
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	9	9	48	199	52	7	8	100%	5.4	26.1%	3.5%	22.6%	4.1%	3.72	3.60	+0.8
2020	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	9	9	48	199	52	7	8	100%	5.4	26.1%	3.5%	22.6%	4.0%	3.72	3.53	+0.8
2021	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	182	764	195	33	15	100%	5.7	25.5%	4.3%	21.2%	2.0%	3.75	2.60	+5.4
2021	31	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	182	764	195	33	15	100%	5.7	25.5%	4.3%	21.2%	2.0%	3.75	2.57	+5.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	115	490	111	22	23	100%	5.2	22.4%	4.3%	18.0%	4.7%	4.06	4.33	+0.8
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	115	490	111	22	23	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	4.7%	4.06	4.34	+0.8
2023	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	25	25	144	577	132	47	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.62	3.53	+2.4
2023	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	25	25	144	577	132	47	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.6%	3.62	3.60	+2.3
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	171	696	166	42	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.0%	17.8%	3.1%	3.80	3.54	+2.8
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	171	696	166	42	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.0%	17.8%	3.1%	3.80	3.54	+2.8
2024	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	29	29	171	696	166	42	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.0%	17.8%	3.3%	3.80	3.64	+2.6
2025	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	22	22	130	496	129	20	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	4.0%	22.0%	1.9%	1.73	2.44	+4.1
2025	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	22	22	130	496	129	20	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	4.0%	22.0%	1.9%	1.73	2.44	+4.1
2025	35	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	22	22	130	496	129	20	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	4.0%	22.0%	2.0%	1.73	2.58	+3.9
2026	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	27	23	146	613	144	35	24	85%	5.4	23.5%	5.7%	17.8%	3.6%	4.20	3.84	+1.9
2026	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	27	23	146	613	144	35	24	85%	5.4	23.5%	5.7%	17.8%	3.6%	4.20	3.84	+1.9
2026	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	27	23	146	613	144	35	24	85%	5.4	23.5%	5.7%	17.8%	3.9%	4.20	3.99	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			343	320	1848	7737	1631	484	212	93%	5.4	21.1%	6.3%	14.8%	2.7%	3.92	3.61	+28.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	TEX	22	22	129	545	133	29	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	5.4%	19.0%	3.1%	3.75	3.81	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	111	468	109	29	17	100%	6.2	23.3%	6.1%	17.1%	3.6%	4.05	4.24	+0.9
2029	39	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	95	403	89	27	16	100%	6.0	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	4.0%	4.42	4.67	+0.3
2028	38	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	111	469	109	29	18	100%	6.2	23.3%	6.1%	17.1%	3.8%	4.20	4.39	+0.9
2029	39	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	95	401	89	27	17	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	4.3%	4.58	4.83	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		377	354	2054	8608	1829	540	247	94%	5.4	21.2%	6.3%	15.0%	2.9%	3.96	3.68	+30.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	838	178	53	24	94%	5.4	21.2%	6.3%	15.0%	2.9%	3.96	3.68	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		350	326	1865	7817	1649	488	211	93%	5.3	21.1%	6.2%	14.9%	2.7%	3.96	3.59	+29.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	838	177	52	23	93%	5.3	21.1%	6.2%	14.9%	2.7%	3.96	3.59	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Eovaldi (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	24.4%	5.4%	3.1%	—	4.44	22.7%	16.3%	206	+0.63	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP	3.66	18.7%	5.5%	2.6%	.277	3.42	18.0%	13.3%	400	-0.24	2.96	1,319	60
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	52
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	50
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	47
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	40
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	34
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	27
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.14	259	26
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	22
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	18
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	11
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	10
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	9

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.9	121	21.4%	6.4%	1.11	3.93
Aníbal Sánchez ('22)	10.1	126	20.6%	8.0%	1.06	4.06
Schoolboy Rowe ('33-'49, 36 WAR*)	11.1	148	21.4%*	5.3%*	1.04*	3.88*
Kyle Hendricks ('25)	8.7	145	19.0%	5.6%	1.08	3.79
Howie Pollet ('41-'56, 31 WAR*)	10.5	151	20.2%*	7.6%*	0.97*	3.74*
Chris Bosio ('86-'96, 24 WAR*)	8.6	155	19.4%*	6.3%*	1.04*	3.97*
Alex Cobb ('24)	6.6	121	19.9%	6.9%	0.95	3.84