Will Smith

P Kansas City Royals

Age 38 LHP 6'5" / 255 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2022	33	MLBHOU	65	59	3.97	4.00	24.9%	8.4%	0.4
2023	34	MLBTEX	60	57	4.40	3.00	24.3%	5.8%	1.1
2024	35	MLBKC	45	41	6.53	4.84	15.6%	7.0%	-0.1
2027PROJ	38	MLBKC	50	53	4.42	4.49	21.4%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ	39	MLBKC	44	46	4.72	4.92	20.3%	9.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ	40	MLBKC	38	40	5.10	5.35	19.1%	10.2%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%39

xwOBA vs11

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 38) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.42

FIP4.49

K%21.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

SL (45%)

CU (12%)

CH (15%)

FB-4.3 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	16	16	90	396	59	32	12	100%	5.6	14.9%	8.1%	6.8%	3.3%	5.32	4.66	+0.2
2012	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	16	16	90	396	59	32	12	100%	5.6	14.9%	8.1%	6.8%	3.0%	5.32	4.59	+0.3
2013	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	19	1	33	131	43	7	6	5%	1.8	32.8%	5.3%	27.5%	5.0%	3.24	3.72	+0.3
2013	24	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	19	1	33	131	43	7	6	5%	1.8	32.8%	5.3%	27.5%	4.6%	3.24	3.49	+0.4
2014	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	78	0	66	286	86	25	6	0%	0.8	30.1%	8.7%	21.3%	2.0%	3.70	2.76	+1.4
2014	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	78	0	66	286	86	25	6	0%	0.8	30.1%	8.7%	21.3%	2.1%	3.70	2.81	+1.4
2015	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	76	0	63	264	91	23	5	0%	0.8	34.5%	8.7%	25.8%	1.8%	2.70	2.28	+1.7
2015	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	76	0	63	264	91	23	5	0%	0.8	34.5%	8.7%	25.8%	1.9%	2.70	2.34	+1.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	0	44	180	53	17	3	0%	0.8	28.7%	10.2%	18.6%	1.9%	3.05	3.03	+0.8
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	0	44	180	53	17	3	0%	0.8	29.4%	9.4%	20.0%	1.7%	3.05	2.74	+1.0
2018	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	62	0	60	238	82	11	3	0%	1.0	33.8%	5.2%	28.6%	1.5%	2.54	1.76	+2.0
2018	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	62	0	60	238	82	11	3	0%	1.0	34.5%	4.6%	29.8%	1.3%	2.54	1.58	+2.2
2019	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	63	0	65	257	96	19	10	0%	1.0	37.4%	7.4%	30.0%	4.2%	2.76	3.19	+1.1
2019	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	63	0	65	257	96	19	10	0%	1.0	37.4%	7.4%	30.0%	3.9%	2.76	3.02	+1.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	18	0	16	62	18	4	7	0%	0.9	29.0%	6.5%	22.6%	11.3%	4.50	7.66	-0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	18	0	16	62	18	4	7	0%	0.9	29.0%	6.5%	22.6%	11.3%	4.50	7.29	-0.5
2021	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	71	0	68	283	87	26	11	0%	1.0	30.7%	9.2%	21.6%	3.9%	3.44	3.80	+0.6
2021	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	71	0	68	283	87	26	11	0%	1.0	30.7%	9.2%	21.6%	3.9%	3.44	3.79	+0.6
2022	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	65	0	59	261	65	22	9	0%	0.9	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	3.5%	3.97	4.01	+0.4
2022	33	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	65	0	59	261	65	22	9	0%	0.9	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	3.4%	3.97	4.00	+0.4
2023	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	60	0	57	226	55	13	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.8%	18.6%	2.1%	4.40	2.90	+1.1
2023	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	60	0	57	226	55	13	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.8%	18.6%	2.2%	4.40	3.00	+1.1
2024	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	45	0	41	186	29	13	7	0%	0.9	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	4.1%	6.53	4.90	-0.2
2024	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	45	0	41	186	29	13	7	0%	0.9	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	4.1%	6.53	4.90	-0.2
2024	35	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	45	0	41	186	29	13	7	0%	0.9	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	3.8%	6.53	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			618	17	652	2729	748	212	84	3%	1.1	27.4%	7.8%	19.6%	3.1%	3.85	3.46	+8.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	KC	50	0	53	224	48	20	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	194	39	18	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.72	4.92	-0.2
2029	40	MLB MLE	KC	38	0	40	167	32	17	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	4.0%	5.10	5.35	-0.4
2028	39	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	39	18	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.72	4.92	-0.2
2029	40	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	32	17	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	4.0%	5.10	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		699	17	738	3090	819	247	98	2%	1.1	26.5%	8.0%	18.5%	3.2%	3.97	3.61	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	5	200	838	222	67	27	2%	1.1	26.5%	8.0%	18.5%	3.2%	3.97	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		629	17	664	2770	761	215	87	3%	1.1	27.5%	7.8%	19.7%	3.2%	3.81	3.49	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		190	5	200	835	229	65	26	3%	1.1	27.5%	7.8%	19.7%	3.2%	3.81	3.49	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	21.4%	8.8%	3.1%	—	5.12	19.7%	9.9%	85	+0.63	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	68
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	38
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	36
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	36
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	35
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	33
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	33
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	32
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	30
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	28
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	27
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	24
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	16
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	12

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	57	26.1%	8.8%	1.22	4.00
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Héctor Neris ('25)	3.1	57	29.4%	9.2%	1.19	3.47
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*