Merrill Kelly

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 38 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	MIX2 levels	14	14	78	4.17	4.17	20.4%	6.0%	0.7	K 21.0% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.26
2025	36	MLBTEX	32	32	184	3.52	3.69	22.3%	6.4%	2.7
2026	37	MIX2 levels	30	30	167	4.80	5.16	15.9%	9.7%	-0.5	K 16.1% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	38	MLBARI	22	22	132	4.76	5.05	17.7%	8.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ	39	MLBARI	19	19	113	5.08	5.37	16.6%	9.2%	-0.7
2029PROJ	40	MLBARI	16	16	97	5.49	5.78	15.4%	9.9%	-1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%24

FB Velo16

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsYasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Pablo Ortega (age 38) · Jose Oyervides (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA4.76

FIP5.05

K%17.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP132

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

SI (9%)

CU (11%)

SL (10%)

CT-1.7 (14%)

CH-2.3 (28%)

FB-4.2 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.9%	4.42	4.41	+1.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.42	4.30	+1.3
2020	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.2%	2.59	3.87	+0.4
2020	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.0%	2.59	3.71	+0.5
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.7%	13.8%	3.3%	4.44	4.00	+1.7
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	20.0%	5.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	3.83	+2.1
2022	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.8%	3.37	3.69	+2.9
2022	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.58	+3.2
2023	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.9%	3.29	3.73	+2.5
2023	34	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.29	3.62	+2.8
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.26	+0.6
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.26	+0.6
2024	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	20.4%	6.0%	14.5%	3.8%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.52	3.60	+2.9
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.52	3.60	+2.9
2025	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.1%	3.52	3.69	+2.7
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	167	724	115	70	28	100%	5.6	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	4.2%	4.80	5.28	-0.7
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	167	724	115	70	28	100%	5.6	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	4.2%	4.80	5.28	-0.7
2026	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	167	724	115	70	28	100%	5.6	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	3.9%	4.80	5.16	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	201	1170	4847	1024	358	158	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.3%	3.93	4.02	+12.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	ARI	22	22	132	557	99	47	20	100%	6.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.6%	4.76	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	478	79	44	20	100%	6.0	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	4.1%	5.20	5.49	-0.7
2029	40	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	97	411	63	41	19	100%	6.1	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	4.5%	5.63	5.92	-1.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	113	477	79	44	18	100%	5.9	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	3.9%	5.08	5.37	-0.7
2029	40	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	97	410	63	41	18	100%	6.1	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	4.3%	5.49	5.78	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	236	1381	5737	1167	443	194	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.7%	12.6%	3.4%	4.13	4.22	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	831	169	64	28	100%	5.8	20.3%	7.7%	12.6%	3.4%	4.13	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		204	204	1183	4903	1034	362	166	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.4%	3.92	4.12	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	829	175	61	28	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.4%	3.92	4.12	+1.5

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	17.7%	8.5%	3.6%	—	5.69	16.0%	6.5%	211	+0.64	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	48
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	45
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	44
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	43
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	38
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	21
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	17
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	11
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	8

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	138	20.1%	8.0%	1.33	4.21
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Orlando Hernandez ('07)	6.6	146	19.5%	8.6%	1.21	4.13
Ted Lilly ('13)	9.9	142	20.0%	7.9%	1.33	4.14
Atley Donald ('38-'45, 9 WAR*)	4.7	133	19.8%*	8.4%*	1.38*	3.98*
Hank Borowy ('42-'51, 19 WAR*)	8.6	172	20.1%*	7.9%*	1.21*	4.11*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	17.7%	8.5%	3.6%	—	5.69	16.0%	6.5%	211	+0.64	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	48
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	45
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	44
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	43
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	38
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	21
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	17
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	11
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	8

Merrill Kelly

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps