Paolo Espino

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 40 RHP 5'10" / 212 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	35	MLBWSH	42	19	113	4.84	4.86	18.9%	4.9%	-0.4
2023	36	MIX2 levels	16	13	64	5.60	4.73	19.3%	8.4%	0.1	K 17.4% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.78
2024	37	MIX3 levels	24	21	97	5.09	4.76	15.2%	6.6%	0.2	K 13.0% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.81
2027PROJ	40	MLBTOR	9	9	52	4.56	4.73	18.3%	8.3%	0.1
2028PROJ0% MLB	41	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.92	5.17	17.2%	9.0%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command50FB velo42

CompsFrancisco Campos (age 42) · Walter Silva (age 40) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.56

FIP4.73

K%18.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

CH+1.2 (23%)

CU (32%)

SL-0.8 (12%)

FB-3.2 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	156	630	120	30	16	93%	5.6	16.4%	5.1%	11.3%	2.5%	3.47	3.73	—
2015	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	156	630	120	30	16	93%	5.6	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	2.5%	3.47	3.47	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	26	24	153	631	133	29	13	92%	5.9	18.5%	4.8%	13.7%	2.3%	3.30	3.42	—
2016	29	AAA RAW	Syracuse Chiefs	26	24	153	631	133	29	13	92%	5.9	21.1%	4.6%	16.5%	2.1%	3.30	3.03	—
2017	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	103	440	97	24	19	55%	3.5	19.9%	5.6%	14.3%	4.2%	4.82	4.44	+0.6
2017	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	16	103	440	97	24	19	55%	3.5	22.0%	5.5%	16.6%	4.3%	4.82	4.32	+0.7
2018	31	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	22	10	60	273	58	25	9	45%	2.7	18.7%	9.6%	9.1%	3.2%	5.85	4.51	—
2018	31	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	22	10	60	273	58	25	9	45%	2.7	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	5.85	4.37	—
2019	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	97	413	102	25	15	89%	5.1	20.7%	6.4%	14.3%	4.3%	5.59	4.54	—
2019	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	97	413	102	25	15	89%	5.1	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	3.6%	5.59	3.78	—
2020	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	2	1	6	27	7	2	1	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	3.7%	4.50	3.88	+0.1
2020	33	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	2	1	6	27	7	2	1	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	3.7%	4.50	3.93	+0.1
2021	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	35	19	110	455	92	23	19	54%	3.1	20.2%	5.1%	15.2%	4.2%	4.27	4.32	+0.7
2021	34	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	35	19	110	455	92	23	19	54%	3.1	20.2%	5.1%	15.2%	4.2%	4.27	4.30	+0.8
2022	35	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	42	19	113	487	92	24	24	45%	2.7	18.9%	4.9%	14.0%	4.9%	4.84	4.83	-0.4
2022	35	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	42	19	113	487	92	24	24	45%	2.7	18.9%	4.9%	14.0%	4.9%	4.84	4.86	-0.4
2023	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	64	285	55	24	11	81%	4.0	17.4%	7.4%	10.0%	4.0%	5.60	4.78	+0.1
2023	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	64	285	55	24	11	81%	4.0	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.9%	5.60	4.73	+0.1
2024	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	21	97	427	65	28	16	88%	4.1	13.0%	5.5%	7.5%	3.8%	5.09	4.81	+0.1
2024	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	21	97	427	65	28	16	88%	4.1	13.0%	5.5%	7.5%	3.8%	5.09	4.81	+0.1
2024	37	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	21	97	427	65	28	16	88%	4.1	15.2%	6.6%	8.7%	3.7%	5.09	4.76	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	42	266	1150	217	67	55	43%	2.7	18.9%	5.8%	13.0%	4.8%	5.12	4.91	-1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	40	MLB	TOR	9	9	52	220	40	18	7	100%	5.8	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	3.2%	4.56	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	41	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	44	188	32	17	7	100%	6.4	17.2%	9.0%	8.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.17	-0.1
2028	41	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	9.0%	8.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.17	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	42	266	1150	217	67	55	43%	2.7	18.9%	5.8%	13.0%	4.8%	5.12	4.87	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		73	32	200	866	163	50	41	43%	2.7	18.9%	5.8%	13.0%	4.8%	5.12	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		243	166	958	4068	741	233	148	68%	3.9	18.2%	5.7%	12.5%	3.6%	4.52	4.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	35	200	849	155	49	31	68%	3.9	18.2%	5.7%	12.5%	3.6%	4.52	4.28	-0.1

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Paolo Espino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	18.3%	8.3%	3.2%	—	5.17	17.2%	8.2%	44	+0.44	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	56
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	42
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	41
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	37
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	30
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	20
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	12

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	72	18.6%	6.7%	1.71	5.01
Ken MacKenzie ('60-'65, -3 WAR*)	1.0	69	20.1%*	7.3%*	1.83*	5.50*
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Sergio Valdez ('86-'95, -2 WAR*)	1.5	61	18.1%*	8.0%*	1.79*	5.46*
Bob Kipper ('85-'92, -1 WAR*)	2.8	70	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.81*	4.95*
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paolo Espino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	18.3%	8.3%	3.2%	—	5.17	17.2%	8.2%	44	+0.44	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	56
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	42
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	41
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	37
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	30
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	20
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	12

Paolo Espino

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps