Carlos Carrasco

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 40 RHP 6'4" / 224 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	37	MIX3 levels	23	23	110	5.55	4.66	20.1%	7.2%	0.3	K 19.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.69
2025	38	MIX2 levels	29	26	134	5.25	4.10	17.6%	7.4%	1.3	K 15.9% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.23
2026	39	MIX2 levels	16	6	52	3.63	4.43	16.0%	7.3%	0.1	K 14.2% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	40	MLBATL	8	8	46	4.98	4.89	15.3%	7.0%	0.0
2028PROJ	41	MLBATL	7	7	40	5.19	5.33	14.1%	7.8%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo12

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsFrancisco Campos (age 42) · Pablo Ortega (age 40) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.98

FIP4.89

K%15.3%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p109.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.432

CH+1.8 (21%)

SI (22%)

CU (10%)

SL-5.5 (27%)

FB-9.6 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2009	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	5	5	22	112	11	10	6	100%	4.5	9.8%	8.9%	0.9%	5.4%	8.87	6.34	-0.4
2009	22	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	5	5	22	112	11	10	6	100%	4.5	9.8%	8.9%	0.9%	5.4%	8.87	6.95	-0.5
2010	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	7	7	45	188	38	13	6	100%	6.4	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	3.2%	3.83	4.03	+0.5
2010	23	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	7	7	45	188	38	13	6	100%	6.4	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	3.2%	3.83	4.02	+0.5
2011	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	21	21	125	536	85	37	15	100%	5.9	15.9%	6.9%	9.0%	2.8%	4.62	4.18	+1.1
2011	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	21	21	125	536	85	37	15	100%	5.9	15.9%	6.9%	9.0%	2.8%	4.62	4.19	+1.0
2013	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	15	7	47	218	30	16	4	47%	3.1	13.8%	7.3%	6.4%	1.8%	6.75	3.88	+0.4
2013	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	15	7	47	218	30	16	4	47%	3.1	13.8%	7.3%	6.4%	1.8%	6.75	3.96	+0.3
2014	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	40	14	134	529	140	28	7	35%	3.4	26.5%	5.3%	21.2%	1.3%	2.55	2.26	+3.8
2014	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	40	14	134	529	140	28	7	35%	3.4	26.5%	5.3%	21.2%	1.3%	2.55	2.32	+3.7
2015	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	30	30	184	730	216	41	18	100%	6.1	29.6%	5.6%	24.0%	2.5%	3.63	2.67	+5.3
2015	28	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	30	30	184	730	216	41	18	100%	6.1	29.6%	5.6%	24.0%	2.5%	3.63	2.69	+5.2
2016	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	150	617	156	33	22	100%	5.8	25.0%	5.3%	19.7%	3.5%	3.29	3.59	+2.4
2016	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	150	617	156	33	22	100%	5.8	25.3%	5.3%	19.9%	3.6%	3.29	3.59	+2.4
2017	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	32	32	200	798	226	44	21	100%	6.2	28.3%	5.5%	22.8%	2.6%	3.29	2.85	+5.2
2017	30	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	32	32	200	798	226	44	21	100%	6.2	28.3%	5.5%	22.8%	2.6%	3.29	2.87	+5.2
2018	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	196	797	235	40	21	94%	5.9	29.5%	5.0%	24.5%	2.7%	3.31	2.72	+5.5
2018	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	31	196	797	235	40	21	94%	5.9	29.5%	5.0%	24.5%	2.6%	3.31	2.71	+5.5
2019	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	85	359	104	17	18	44%	3.1	28.2%	4.4%	23.8%	5.3%	5.08	4.18	+0.4
2019	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	12	85	359	104	17	18	44%	3.1	29.0%	4.7%	24.2%	5.0%	5.08	4.01	+0.5
2020	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	12	12	68	280	82	27	8	100%	5.7	29.3%	9.6%	19.6%	2.9%	2.91	3.42	+1.2
2020	33	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	12	12	68	280	82	27	8	100%	5.7	29.3%	9.6%	19.6%	2.9%	2.91	3.41	+1.2
2021	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	60	266	59	21	15	100%	4.0	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	5.1%	6.12	5.07	-0.1
2021	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	60	266	59	21	15	100%	4.0	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	5.6%	6.12	5.42	-0.4
2022	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	29	29	152	645	152	39	17	100%	5.2	23.6%	6.0%	17.5%	2.6%	3.97	3.33	+2.9
2022	35	MLB RAW	New York Mets	29	29	152	645	152	39	17	100%	5.2	23.6%	6.0%	17.5%	2.6%	3.97	3.32	+2.9
2023	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	97	443	71	40	18	100%	4.4	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	4.3%	6.40	5.29	-0.4
2023	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	97	443	71	40	18	100%	4.4	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	4.1%	6.40	5.29	-0.4
2024	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	110	473	95	34	20	100%	4.8	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	4.3%	5.55	4.69	+0.3
2024	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	110	473	95	34	20	100%	4.8	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	4.3%	5.55	4.69	+0.3
2024	37	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	110	473	95	34	20	100%	4.8	20.1%	7.2%	12.9%	4.2%	5.55	4.66	+0.3
2025	38	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	134	580	102	43	16	90%	4.6	15.9%	7.0%	9.0%	2.9%	5.25	4.23	+1.1
2025	38	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	134	580	102	43	16	90%	4.6	15.9%	7.0%	9.0%	2.9%	5.25	4.23	+1.1
2025	38	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	134	580	102	43	16	90%	4.6	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	2.8%	5.25	4.10	+1.3
2026	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	52	219	35	16	7	38%	3.2	14.2%	6.7%	7.5%	3.4%	3.63	4.61	-0.0
2026	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	52	219	35	16	7	38%	3.2	14.2%	6.7%	7.5%	3.4%	3.63	4.61	-0.0
2026	39	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	6	52	219	35	16	7	38%	3.2	16.0%	7.3%	8.7%	3.2%	3.63	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			343	286	1704	7146	1703	450	224	83%	5.0	23.8%	6.3%	17.5%	3.1%	4.24	3.60	+26.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	40	MLB	ATL	8	8	46	194	30	14	6	100%	5.8	15.3%	7.0%	8.2%	3.3%	4.98	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	41	MLB MLE	ATL	7	7	40	167	24	13	6	100%	5.6	14.1%	7.8%	6.4%	3.7%	5.19	5.33	-0.2
2028	41	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	24	13	6	100%	5.7	14.1%	7.8%	6.4%	3.7%	5.19	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		350	293	1744	7313	1727	463	230	84%	5.0	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	3.1%	4.26	3.64	+26.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	34	200	839	198	53	26	84%	5.0	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	3.1%	4.26	3.64	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		382	318	1861	7790	1814	494	241	83%	4.9	23.3%	6.3%	16.9%	3.1%	4.19	3.64	+26.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	34	200	837	195	53	26	83%	4.9	23.3%	6.3%	16.9%	3.1%	4.19	3.64	+3.0

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Carlos Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	15.3%	7.0%	3.3%	—	5.33	14.1%	6.4%	40	+0.44	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	62
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	42
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	38
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	13
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	11

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	99	23.4%	6.6%	1.22	4.28
Billy Hoeft ('52-'66, 18 WAR*)	9.2	132	23.1%*	7.8%*	1.16*	4.31*
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)	9.8	131	20.5%*	7.8%*	1.26*	4.41*
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	15.3%	7.0%	3.3%	—	5.33	14.1%	6.4%	40	+0.44	—	—	—
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	62
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	42
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	38
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	13
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	11

Carlos Carrasco

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps