Justin Wilson

P Boston Red Sox

Age 39 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	35	MIX2 levels	10	9	1.93	3.64	32.4%	2.7%	—	K 32.4% · BB 2.7% · FIP 3.67
2024	36	MLBCIN	60	47	5.59	4.47	24.4%	5.7%	0.0
2025	37	MLBBOS	61	48	3.35	2.60	27.5%	8.2%	1.1
2027PROJ	39	MLBBOS	50	52	3.97	3.79	26.3%	7.8%	0.5
2028PROJ	40	MLBBOS	43	45	4.12	4.22	25.1%	8.5%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%90

K%79

xwOBA vs66

FB Velo50

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Takashi Saito (age 39) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 102

ERA3.97

FIP3.79

K%26.3%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%18.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p7927.5%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

FB+2.4 (46%)

SL (33%)

CT-1.1 (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	0	5	26	7	3	0	0%	0.6	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	0.0%	1.93	2.29	+0.1
2012	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	0	5	26	7	3	0	0%	0.6	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	0.0%	1.93	2.03	+0.1
2013	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	74	295	59	27	4	0%	1.3	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	1.5%	2.08	3.38	+1.0
2013	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	74	295	59	27	4	0%	1.3	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	1.4%	2.08	3.30	+1.1
2014	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	0	60	256	61	25	4	0%	0.9	23.8%	9.8%	14.1%	1.7%	4.20	3.25	+0.9
2014	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	70	0	60	256	61	25	4	0%	0.9	23.8%	9.8%	14.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.18	+1.0
2015	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	74	0	61	244	66	20	3	0%	0.8	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	1.2%	3.10	2.49	+1.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	74	0	61	244	66	20	3	0%	0.8	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	1.2%	3.10	2.56	+1.5
2016	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	0	59	251	65	15	6	0%	0.9	25.9%	6.0%	19.9%	2.5%	4.14	3.04	+1.1
2016	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	0	59	251	65	15	6	0%	0.9	25.9%	6.0%	19.9%	2.4%	4.14	2.98	+1.1
2017	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	65	0	58	248	80	34	5	0%	0.9	32.3%	13.7%	18.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.26	+0.9
2017	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	65	0	58	248	80	34	5	0%	0.9	32.3%	13.7%	18.5%	2.0%	3.41	3.22	+0.9
2018	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	71	0	55	236	69	32	5	0%	0.8	29.2%	13.6%	15.7%	2.2%	3.46	3.56	+0.6
2018	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	71	0	55	236	69	32	5	0%	0.8	29.2%	13.6%	15.7%	2.1%	3.46	3.52	+0.7
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	41	175	48	18	4	4%	0.9	26.5%	10.8%	15.7%	2.4%	2.63	3.56	+0.5
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	41	175	48	18	4	4%	0.9	27.4%	10.3%	17.1%	2.3%	2.63	3.34	+0.6
2020	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	23	0	20	86	23	8	1	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	1.2%	3.66	2.66	+0.4
2020	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	23	0	20	86	23	8	1	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	1.2%	3.66	2.64	+0.4
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	37	160	31	18	6	0%	0.8	19.5%	10.7%	8.7%	3.7%	4.86	4.86	-0.1
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	37	160	31	18	6	0%	0.8	19.4%	11.2%	8.1%	3.8%	4.86	4.99	-0.2
2022	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	5	0	4	13	7	0	0	0%	0.7	53.8%	0.0%	53.8%	0.0%	2.45	-1.45	+0.3
2022	34	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	5	0	4	13	7	0	0	0%	0.7	53.8%	0.0%	53.8%	0.0%	2.45	-0.72	+0.2
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	9	37	12	1	2	0%	0.9	32.4%	2.7%	29.7%	5.4%	1.93	3.67	—
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	9	37	12	1	2	0%	0.9	32.4%	2.7%	29.7%	5.4%	1.93	3.64	—
2024	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	47	209	51	12	10	0%	0.8	24.4%	5.7%	18.7%	4.4%	5.59	4.20	+0.2
2024	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	47	209	51	12	10	0%	0.8	24.4%	5.7%	18.7%	4.4%	5.59	4.20	+0.2
2024	36	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	47	209	51	12	10	0%	0.8	24.4%	5.7%	18.7%	4.8%	5.59	4.47	+0.0
2025	37	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	207	57	17	3	0%	0.8	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	1.5%	3.35	2.63	+1.1
2025	37	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	207	57	17	3	0%	0.8	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	1.5%	3.35	2.63	+1.1
2025	37	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	207	57	17	3	0%	0.8	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	1.4%	3.35	2.60	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			648	0	562	2386	618	227	51	0%	0.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	2.1%	3.59	3.29	+8.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	BOS	50	0	52	220	58	17	6	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	BOS	43	0	45	190	48	16	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	3.3%	4.12	4.22	+0.2
2028	40	MLB CTX	BOS	43	0	45	190	48	16	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	3.3%	4.12	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		691	0	607	2576	666	243	57	0%	0.9	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	2.2%	3.63	3.33	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		228	0	200	849	219	80	19	0%	0.9	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	2.2%	3.63	3.33	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		663	2	576	2443	635	230	54	0%	0.9	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	2.2%	3.54	3.31	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		230	1	200	848	220	80	19	0%	0.9	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	2.2%	3.54	3.31	+2.8

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Justin Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	26.3%	7.8%	2.8%	—	4.22	25.1%	16.6%	45	+0.43	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	77
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	39
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	30
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	28
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	26
Koji Uehara R 2014 · 3.05 FIP	39	SU	3.05	32.1%	3.2%	4.1%	.272	3.11	30.7%	25.5%	130	+0.06	1.28	481	26
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	23
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	5

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	55	25.9%	9.9%	0.88	3.65
Brian Fuentes ('12)	3.1	56	24.4%	9.8%	0.94	3.62
Jerry Blevins ('19)	2.5	45	24.2%	9.3%	0.91	3.54
Jose Valverde ('14)	3.2	57	26.2%	10.0%	0.96	3.27
Al Hrabosky ('70-'82, 10 WAR*)	3.6	72	26.7%*	10.1%*	0.98*	3.50*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Paul Assenmacher ('86-'99, 12 WAR*)	4.3	61	27.8%*	8.3%*	0.98*	3.61*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	26.3%	7.8%	2.8%	—	4.22	25.1%	16.6%	45	+0.43	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	77
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	39
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	30
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	28
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	26
Koji Uehara R 2014 · 3.05 FIP	39	SU	3.05	32.1%	3.2%	4.1%	.272	3.11	30.7%	25.5%	130	+0.06	1.28	481	26
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	23
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	5

Justin Wilson

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps