Jesse Chavez

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 43 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	39	MIX2 levels	39	2	38	1.42	2.44	28.7%	8.3%	1.0	K 27.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.63
2024	40	MLBATL	46	0	63	3.13	4.27	20.8%	6.8%	0.2
2025	41	MIX2 levels	27	1	39	3.49	4.16	26.2%	10.1%	0.2	K 24.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.11
2027PROJ	43	MLBATL	167	0	175	4.10	4.34	21.3%	8.2%	0.4
2028PROJ	44	MLBATL	143	0	150	4.51	4.78	20.1%	8.9%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff41Control45Command43FB velo41

CompsRafael Diaz (age 44) · Gaudencio Aguirre (age 43) · Pablo Ortega (age 42)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.10

FIP4.34

K%21.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

SI (35%)

CU (6%)

SL-0.9 (4%)

CT-1.0 (39%)

FB-1.6 (35%)

CH-3.4 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2008	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	15	0	15	74	16	7	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	2.7%	6.60	3.96	+0.1
2008	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	15	0	15	74	16	7	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	2.7%	6.60	4.10	+0.1
2009	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	73	0	67	286	47	19	11	0%	0.9	16.4%	6.6%	9.8%	3.8%	4.01	4.66	-0.1
2009	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	73	0	67	286	47	19	11	0%	0.9	16.4%	6.6%	9.8%	3.8%	4.01	4.67	-0.1
2010	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	51	0	63	280	45	16	11	0%	1.2	16.1%	5.7%	10.4%	4.2%	5.89	4.80	-0.2
2010	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	51	0	63	280	45	16	11	0%	1.2	16.1%	5.7%	10.4%	3.9%	5.89	4.71	-0.1
2011	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	4	0	8	39	8	5	3	0%	1.9	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	7.7%	10.57	7.21	-0.2
2011	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	4	0	8	39	8	5	3	0%	1.9	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	7.7%	10.57	8.06	-0.3
2012	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	13	2	25	123	30	10	7	15%	1.9	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	6.3%	9.85	5.50	-0.3
2012	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	13	2	25	123	30	10	7	15%	1.9	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	5.7%	9.85	5.57	-0.3
2013	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	0	57	248	55	16	3	0%	1.6	22.2%	6.5%	15.7%	1.3%	3.92	2.77	+1.2
2013	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	35	0	57	248	55	16	3	0%	1.6	22.2%	6.5%	15.7%	1.2%	3.92	2.70	+1.3
2014	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	21	146	621	136	46	17	66%	4.6	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.0%	3.45	3.84	+1.9
2014	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	21	146	621	136	46	17	66%	4.6	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	2.7%	3.45	3.70	+2.1
2015	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	30	26	157	672	136	46	18	87%	5.2	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.18	3.87	+1.9
2015	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	30	26	157	672	136	46	18	87%	5.2	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.18	3.74	+2.2
2016	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	62	0	67	282	63	15	12	0%	1.1	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	4.1%	4.43	4.13	+0.3
2016	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	62	0	67	282	63	15	12	0%	1.1	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	4.3%	4.43	4.22	+0.3
2017	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	38	21	138	586	119	43	28	55%	3.6	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.7%	5.35	4.89	+0.0
2017	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	38	21	138	586	119	43	28	55%	3.6	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.8%	5.35	4.95	-0.1
2018	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	62	0	95	377	92	16	13	0%	1.5	24.4%	4.2%	20.2%	3.6%	2.55	3.54	+1.1
2018	34	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	62	0	95	377	92	16	13	0%	1.5	24.4%	4.2%	20.2%	3.4%	2.55	3.45	+1.3
2019	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	48	9	78	337	72	22	12	19%	1.6	21.4%	6.5%	14.8%	3.4%	4.85	4.00	+0.5
2019	35	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	48	9	78	337	72	22	12	19%	1.6	21.4%	6.5%	14.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.10	+0.4
2020	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	18	0	17	77	13	7	6	0%	0.9	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	7.2%	6.88	6.80	-0.4
2020	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	18	0	17	77	13	7	6	0%	0.9	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	7.8%	6.88	7.39	-0.6
2021	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	4	54	210	63	17	1	9%	1.2	28.5%	8.3%	20.2%	0.5%	2.18	2.03	+1.6
2021	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	4	54	210	63	17	1	9%	1.2	30.0%	8.1%	21.9%	0.5%	2.18	1.94	+1.7
2022	38	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	60	1	69	292	74	20	8	2%	1.2	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.33	+1.0
2022	38	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	60	1	69	292	74	20	8	2%	1.2	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.33	+1.0
2023	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	38	157	45	13	2	5%	1.0	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.63	+0.9
2023	39	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	38	157	45	13	2	5%	1.0	28.7%	8.3%	20.4%	1.3%	1.42	2.44	+1.0
2024	40	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	46	0	63	264	55	18	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.13	4.28	+0.2
2024	40	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	46	0	63	264	55	18	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.13	4.28	+0.2
2024	40	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	46	0	63	264	55	18	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.13	4.27	+0.2
2025	41	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	168	44	17	6	4%	1.4	24.8%	8.6%	16.1%	1.8%	3.49	3.11	+0.7
2025	41	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	168	44	17	6	4%	1.4	24.8%	8.6%	16.1%	1.8%	3.49	3.11	+0.7
2025	41	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	39	168	44	17	6	4%	1.4	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	3.6%	3.49	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			657	85	1142	4878	1044	333	167	13%	1.7	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	3.4%	4.27	4.05	+6.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	43	MLB	ATL	167	0	175	739	157	61	22	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.10	4.34	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	44	MLB MLE	ATL	143	0	150	635	128	57	22	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.51	4.78	-0.4
2028	44	MLB CTX	ATL	143	0	150	633	127	56	22	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.51	4.78	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		800	85	1292	5513	1172	390	189	11%	1.6	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.4%	4.30	4.08	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		124	13	200	853	181	60	29	11%	1.6	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.4%	4.30	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		696	87	1196	5093	1105	351	171	12%	1.7	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	3.4%	4.17	3.99	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	15	200	852	185	59	29	12%	1.7	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	3.4%	4.17	3.99	+1.0

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Jesse Chavez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.78	20.1%	11.2%	150	+0.44	—	—	—
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	47
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	43	SU	4.42	14.0%	10.3%	2.2%	.288	3.33	15.8%	10.0%	37	-1.09	3.25	123	38
Pablo Ortega R 2019 · 5.20 FIP	42	SU	5.20	12.4%	8.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	375	26
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	9

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	92	21.3%	7.7%	1.30	4.28
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Dan Schatzeder ('77-'91, 8 WAR*)	6.6	94	18.8%*	8.5%*	1.28*	4.25*
Dennis Cook ('88-'02, 7 WAR*)	5.1	72	21.4%*	8.6%*	1.39*	4.02*
Gene Nelson ('81-'93, 6 WAR*)	5.4	83	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.17*	4.31*
Eddie Guardado ('09)	4.7	63	19.9%	8.7%	1.31	4.31
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesse Chavez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.78	20.1%	11.2%	150	+0.44	—	—	—
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	47
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	43	SU	4.42	14.0%	10.3%	2.2%	.288	3.33	15.8%	10.0%	37	-1.09	3.25	123	38
Pablo Ortega R 2019 · 5.20 FIP	42	SU	5.20	12.4%	8.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	375	26
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	9

Jesse Chavez

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps