Justin Verlander

P Toledo Mud Hens
Age 44 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA peak 1.2 · 2027
Overview
AAASP40-MAN
YearAgeLvl / TeamGGSIPERAFIPK%BB%WARMLE rates
202441MIX3 levels21211045.874.2419.6%6.7%0.8K 18.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.52
202542MLBSF29291523.853.6720.7%7.7%2.3
202643MIX2 levels44205.037.1715.9%6.1%-0.5K 15.9% · BB 6.1% · FIP 7.22
2027PROJ44MLBDET1515934.314.3220.4%7.7%0.6
2028PROJ45MLBDET1313804.574.7519.3%8.4%0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025
Whiff%47
xwOBA vs44
FB Velo41
K%40
CompsFrancisco Campos (age 44)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97
ERA4.31
FIP4.32
K%20.4%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.7%
Proj IP93
Value2027 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
K: -0.7 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-1KBB: +0.5 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: -1.3 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +11.1 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+11STAMTotal WAR: +1.01 (93 IP)+1.0WAR
0.60.12728
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—50
STUF5550
CTRL5045
CMD5045
K†5050
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p4020.7%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
CH (15%)
CU (18%)
FB (42%)
SL-1.6 (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
200522MLB MLEDetroit Tigers221154751100%5.713.0%9.3%3.7%1.9%7.154.19+0.1
200522MLB RAWDetroit Tigers221154751100%5.713.0%9.3%3.7%1.9%7.154.34+0.1
200623MLB MLEDetroit Tigers30301867761245921100%6.216.0%7.6%8.4%2.7%3.634.20+1.5
200623MLB RAWDetroit Tigers30301867761245921100%6.216.0%7.6%8.4%2.7%3.634.19+1.6
200724MLB MLEDetroit Tigers32322028661836420100%6.321.1%7.4%13.7%2.3%3.663.52+3.4
200724MLB RAWDetroit Tigers32322028661836420100%6.321.1%7.4%13.7%2.3%3.663.53+3.4
200825MLB MLEDetroit Tigers33332018801637918100%6.118.5%9.0%9.5%2.0%4.843.80+2.7
200825MLB RAWDetroit Tigers33332018801637918100%6.118.5%9.0%9.5%2.0%4.843.82+2.6
200926MLB MLEDetroit Tigers35352409822695820100%6.927.4%5.9%21.5%2.0%3.452.65+7.0
200926MLB RAWDetroit Tigers35352409822695820100%6.927.4%5.9%21.5%2.0%3.452.67+7.0
201027MLB MLEDetroit Tigers33332249252197114100%6.823.7%7.7%16.0%1.6%3.372.94+5.6
201027MLB RAWDetroit Tigers33332249252197114100%6.823.7%7.7%16.0%1.5%3.372.91+5.7
201128MLB MLEDetroit Tigers34342519692505724100%7.425.8%5.9%19.9%2.6%2.403.09+5.8
201128MLB RAWDetroit Tigers34342519692505724100%7.425.8%5.9%19.9%2.5%2.403.03+6.0
201229MLB MLEDetroit Tigers33332389562395819100%7.225.0%6.1%18.9%2.1%2.642.90+6.1
201229MLB RAWDetroit Tigers33332389562395819100%7.225.0%6.1%18.9%2.0%2.642.86+6.3
201330MLB MLEDetroit Tigers34342189252177419100%6.423.5%8.0%15.5%2.1%3.463.31+4.3
201330MLB RAWDetroit Tigers34342189252177419100%6.423.5%8.0%15.5%2.1%3.463.26+4.5
201431MLB MLEDetroit Tigers32322068931596418100%6.417.8%7.2%10.6%2.1%4.543.66+3.1
201431MLB RAWDetroit Tigers32322068931596418100%6.417.8%7.2%10.6%2.0%4.543.62+3.2
201532MIX MLE2 levels22221425731253313100%6.421.1%5.8%15.3%2.5%3.373.44+2.5
201532MIX RAW2 levels22221425731253313100%6.421.8%5.8%16.1%2.3%3.373.23+3.0
201633MLB MLEDetroit Tigers34342289032545630100%6.728.1%6.2%21.9%3.5%3.043.41+4.2
201633MLB RAWDetroit Tigers34342289032545630100%6.728.1%6.2%21.9%3.3%3.043.32+4.5
201734MLB MLEHouston Astros33332068492196827100%6.225.8%8.0%17.8%3.3%3.363.73+2.9
201734MLB RAWHouston Astros33332068492196827100%6.225.8%8.0%17.8%3.2%3.363.67+3.1
201835MLB MLEHouston Astros34342148332903728100%6.334.8%4.4%30.4%3.5%2.522.62+6.3
201835MLB RAWHouston Astros34342148332903728100%6.334.8%4.4%30.4%3.4%2.522.61+6.3
201936MLB MLEHouston Astros34342238473004236100%6.635.4%5.0%30.5%4.4%2.583.14+4.9
201936MLB RAWHouston Astros34342238473004236100%6.635.4%5.0%30.5%4.3%2.583.07+5.1
202037MLB MLEHouston Astros11621712100%6.033.3%4.8%28.6%9.5%3.006.12-0.1
202037MLB RAWHouston Astros11621712100%6.033.3%4.8%28.6%9.5%3.005.60-0.0
202239MLB MLEHouston Astros28281756661852912100%6.227.8%4.4%23.4%1.9%1.752.32+5.9
202239MLB RAWHouston Astros28281756661852912100%6.227.8%4.4%23.4%1.8%1.752.37+5.8
202340MIX MLE2 levels28281676861504618100%6.021.5%6.7%14.8%2.8%3.133.65+2.5
202340MIX RAW2 levels28281676861504618100%6.021.9%6.7%15.2%2.6%3.133.53+2.8
202441MIX MLE3 levels2121104464913116100%5.018.7%6.8%11.9%3.9%5.874.52+0.5
202441MIX MLE3 levels2121104464913116100%5.018.7%6.8%11.9%3.9%5.874.52+0.5
202441MIX RAW3 levels2121104464913116100%5.019.6%6.7%12.9%3.4%5.874.24+0.8
202542MLB MLESan Francisco Giants29291526621375116100%5.220.7%7.7%13.0%2.6%3.853.76+2.1
202542MLB MLESan Francisco Giants29291526621375116100%5.220.7%7.7%13.0%2.6%3.853.76+2.1
202542MLB RAWSan Francisco Giants29291526621375116100%5.220.7%7.7%13.0%2.4%3.853.67+2.3
202643MIX MLE2 levels4420821357100%4.915.9%6.1%9.8%8.5%5.037.22-0.5
202643MIX MLE2 levels4420821357100%4.915.9%6.1%9.8%8.5%5.037.22-0.5
202643MIX RAW2 levels4420821357100%4.915.9%6.1%9.8%8.5%5.037.17-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career—5575573577146463560979374100%6.424.3%6.7%17.6%2.6%3.333.29+71.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
202744MLBDET151593393803011100%6.220.4%7.7%12.7%2.9%4.314.32+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
202845MLB MLEDET131380339652811100%6.219.3%8.4%10.9%3.3%4.574.75+0.1
202845MLB CTXDET131380338652811100%6.219.3%8.4%10.9%3.3%4.574.75+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— RAW57057036571498536251007385100%6.424.2%6.7%17.5%2.6%3.363.32+71.7
/ 200 IP— RAW31312008201985521100%6.424.2%6.7%17.5%2.6%3.363.32+3.9
Career— MLE5665663614148123590989393100%6.424.2%6.7%17.6%2.7%3.353.36+71.6
/ 200 IP— MLE31312008201995522100%6.424.2%6.7%17.6%2.7%3.353.36+3.9

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player162sIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION18.818824.1%6.9%1.003.38
Whitey Ford ('50-'67, 66 WAR*)15.919822.5%*7.6%*0.87*3.20*
CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF17.918820.6%7.3%0.963.74
Jerry Koosman ('67-'85, 59 WAR*)19.220222.8%*7.4%*1.04*3.86*
Félix Hernández ('19)13.618222.4%7.1%0.873.42
Cole Hamels ('20) AS×413.519323.0%6.9%1.033.43
Charles Bender ('03-'25, 50 WAR*)15.120125.8%*7.1%*1.02*3.79*